市場分析

Crypto Markets Struggle Post-Fed Cut as Investors Await Clarity

Blue · 18 Sep399.7K 閱讀

On September 17, 2025, the U.S. Federal Reserve made its anticipated move by reducing its policy interest rates by 25 basis points. According to Reuters, this marks the Fed’s first rate cut since December 2024, and the decision is framed as a risk-management cut in light of softening in the U.S. labor market.

Yet, despite expectations that looser monetary policy would energize risk-assets, crypto markets did not rally dramatically. Some segments saw modest gains, but broadly, the reaction has been muted. This matters because it suggests that while headline rate cuts are a positive, crypto markets may no longer respond simply to easing , investors now demand stronger directional clarity, more favorable fundamentals, and reduced macro risk before deploying capital aggressively.

Economic Impact

Fed’s Monetary Policy Shift and Macroeconomic Context

The Fed’s latest decision to ease reflects growing concern about employment softness, with notable signs including fewer hours worked and a rise in unemployment risks. The forward guidance signals more cuts ahead in 2025, but with caution. The Fed emphasised it will proceed “meeting-by-meeting” while closely watching inflation.

Inflation remains a concern: while the outlook for price pressures has eased somewhat, the target of 2% remains distant. In projections, inflation is expected above that threshold, even as the labor market weakens. Real interest rates (interest rates minus inflation expectations) remain a crucial drag on non-yielding assets like many cryptos. The diverging expectations among Fed officials (as seen in the “dot plot”) also introduce uncertainty.

Influence on Risk Sentiment and Capital Flows

Lower interest rates generally reduce discount rates used in valuation models, making risk assets more attractive. That should benefit crypto markets. However, the effect is blunted if inflation remains sticky or the dollar stays strong. In fact, markets saw a firming dollar post-Fed meeting, which erodes buying power for crypto investments denominated in USD.

Global investors are also weighing whether economic growth will slow, particularly in major economies. Slower growth may reduce risk appetite; risk-off behavior tends to hurt crypto markets more than traditional safe-haven assets when uncertainty exceeds expected upside from policy easing.

Market Response

Price Action & Sentiment in Crypto Markets

Bitcoin has shown relative resilience. On September 18, 2025, Bitcoin rallied about 1% to around $117,484, despite initial volatility following the Fed’s rate cut announcement. This suggests that in crypto markets, at least some participants interpreted the easing as mildly positive, or that downside risks had been sufficiently priced in.

Other crypto assets did not uniformly follow. Some altcoins saw limited upside; others slid or remained flat. Investors appear cautious: the Fed’s messaging did not deliver a clear aggressive path of rate cuts, which many in markets desired. The phrase “meeting-by-meeting” signalled conditional support rather than an assured easing path. That has led to a subdued risk bias, especially within less liquid segments of crypto markets.

Equity, Bond & Currency Interplay

Crypto markets do not operate in isolation , they often correlate with equity performance, bond yields, and currency strength. After the Fed cut:

U.S. Treasury yields modestly rose, especially mid-to-long maturities, as markets digested inflation risk and diverging views in the dot plot.
The U.S. dollar strengthened against a basket of currencies. A stronger dollar tends to make crypto more expensive for foreign investors, potentially suppressing inflows into crypto markets.
Equity markets globally showed mixed performance. Some indices hit record highs, but volatility increased. In Asia, markets were steady but not strongly bullish.

Technical & Fundamental Analysis

Technical Landscape

Bitcoin appears to have found support near prior consolidation zones. The recent rally to ~$117,500 reflects that buyers have stepped in around those levels. Yet resistance remains,in particular, psychological ceilings and prior all-time highs are likely areas of supply.
Altcoins face greater headwinds: lower liquidity, higher correlation with risk sentiment, and sensitivity to regulatory risk. Without strong catalysts (e.g., network upgrades, major partnerships, or bullish macro flows), many altcoins may remain range-bound or lag Bitcoin.
Volume metrics are critical. Some exchanges report increasing volume in larger caps (Bitcoin, Ethereum), but smaller tokens are not showing the same breadth of participation. Crypto markets with broad participation often have more sustainable rallies; those without may see sharp pullbacks.

Fundamental Drivers

On-chain metrics such as wallet accumulation, mining / staking behavior, net outflows/inflows from exchanges, and transaction throughput remain mixed. There are pockets of accumulation, particularly among institutional or large wallets, but no overwhelming momentum yet.
Regulatory clarity (or lack thereof) remains a recurring theme. Uncertainty around tax policy, enforcement, and cross-border regulation dampens longer-term risk capital.
Macroeconomic factors: inflation data, labor market reports, and global growth (especially in China, Europe) will heavily influence expectations for further policy easing. If inflation disappoints on the upside, the Fed may shift tone; if labor data worsens materially, that could support more aggressive cutting.

Expert Opinions

From Reuters’ “Instant View” of analyst reactions, many see the Fed’s cut as appropriate but insufficient to trigger explosive gains. The emphasis has shifted: now, labor market weakness is being taken more seriously.
Market strategists warn that markets may have already priced in one or two rate cuts; future cuts will need strong supporting data. Some dissent within the Fed (e.g. Governor Miran favouring a larger cut) suggests there is diversity of views.
Analysts at MAI Capital, Siebert, and other fund managers noted that while the Fed’s tone has become more dovish, inflation remains sticky. They caution that crypto markets could lag unless those inflation metrics begin to move in a more favorable direction. This implies that Fed announcements alone may no longer be sufficient to move crypto markets substantially.

Crypto Markets Remain Cautious

In summary, the recent rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve has supplied a mild tailwind, but crypto markets remain cautious. Key takeaways:

The Fed’s cut was widely expected; the surprise value is low. What matters more now is future guidance and supporting macro data.
Bitcoin is showing strength relative to many altcoins, partly because of its liquidity and perception as a more established risk asset.
Inflation, labor market signs, and the trajectory of monetary policy will be the principal drivers of crypto markets in the near term.
Regulatory risk and dollar strength are non-trivial headwinds that could limit upside.

Looking ahead, traders will likely focus on whether additional cuts materialize before year-end and how the Fed communicates its tolerance for inflation overshoot. A decisive break in macro data , either much weaker labor reports or faster disinflation , could be the catalyst for a stronger crypto markets rally. Conversely, if economic conditions stabilize without significant dovish follow-through, crypto markets may continue to grind sideways, with volatility spikes around data releases. For long-term investors, this environment underscores the importance of patience, discipline, and careful risk management.

Stay updated with the latest news at Dupoin & Dupoin Academy

DISCLAIMER

Derivative investments involve significant risks that may result in the loss of your invested capital. You are advised to carefully read and study the legality of the company, products, and trading rules before deciding to invest your money. Be responsible and accountable in your trading.

RISK WARNING IN TRADING

Transactions via margin involve leverage mechanisms, have high risks, and may not be suitable for all investors. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE OF PROFIT on your investment, so be cautious of those who promise profits in trading. It's recommended not to use funds if you're not ready to incur losses. Before deciding to trade, make sure you understand the risks involved and also consider your experience.