XAU/USD Retreats from Resistance amid Easing Tariff Fears

Market Overview

Japan

The Japanese Yen rose to a two-week high, trading below 146 JPY/USD, supported by optimism surrounding a new U.S.–Japan trade deal, under which tariffs on Japanese exports have been reduced to 15%, down from the previously threatened 25%.

Private sector growth remains steady thanks to robust services, despite a decline in manufacturing. However, the yen may come under pressure as political concerns mount: Prime Minister Ishiba is rumored to be preparing to resign after the ruling coalition lost its majority in the Upper House.

China

The Chinese Yuan (CNY) rose to 7.15 per USD – the highest level in 36 weeks – driven by positive sentiment from global trade developments. However, analysts warn that the CNY could weaken by the end of the year due to the negative impact of tariffs, especially if trade tensions escalate.

The People's Bank of China (PBoC) may intentionally allow the CNY to weaken to support exports. A forecast from Commerzbank suggests that the USD/CNY exchange rate could reach 7.30 by the end of 2025, before returning to 7.10 by the end of 2026 as the USD declines due to political pressure forcing the Fed to cut interest rates more aggressively than expected.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Fundamental Analysis

Bitcoin is trading near its all-time high of $123,000, but on-chain data shows that BTC inflows to exchanges are significantly lower compared to previous bull runs in 2017 and 2021. This suggests that major investors are still holding and not taking profits yet, reinforcing confidence in the current uptrend.

However, miners have started to take profits aggressively, with BTC outflows from miners to exchanges reaching 16,000 BTC on July 15 — the highest level since April. If the Inter-Exchange Flow (IFP) indicator reverses upward, it could serve as a warning signal for upcoming selling pressure.
 
Technical Analysis

Price has broken through multiple supply zones, shifting into a high-range accumulation phase above the $116,000–$120,000 area.
 
RSI: Currently around 53 — neutral, with no clear overbought or oversold signal. However, RSI is gradually recovering after a recent pullback, indicating signs of accumulation.

Next major resistance if a breakout occurs: $123,236 (the previous high from July 14).

EURUSD

Fundamental Analysis

The EUR/USD exchange rate edged higher, nearing a four-year high, as market sentiment turned optimistic due to positive developments in trade agreements between the U.S. and major partners such as the EU and Japan. The euro held steady around 1.1768, while the U.S. dollar index weakened as capital flowed into riskier assets.

Investors are awaiting the European Central Bank's (ECB) interest rate decision later today. While rates are expected to remain unchanged, expectations for a cut later this year persist. The market is looking for policy guidance that may signal the ECB’s next steps as trade-related risks gradually subside.
 
Technical Analysis

Price is currently in a short-term uptrend. The EMA sequence (34 > 89 > 200) confirms a stable bullish trend.
 
Price has broken through the previous supply zone around 1.17162 and is approaching a strong supply area between 1.18094 and 1.18300.

Volume: Slight increase during recent bullish candles, indicating dominant buying pressure.

RSI: Around 70.49 — in overbought territory, suggesting caution for a potential correction or pullback.

Gold Spot (XAUUSD)

Fundamental Analysis

Gold prices hovered just below $3,390/oz on Thursday, extending a decline of over 1% from the previous session. Optimism surrounding trade agreements between the U.S. and key partners has dampened demand for the precious metal as a safe-haven asset.

The EU and the U.S. are nearing a trade deal that would impose a 15% tariff, avoiding the previously planned 30% rate set for August 1. However, markets remain cautious amid the risk of the U.S. imposing higher tariffs on South Korea, India, and other countries. Investors are also awaiting next week’s Fed meeting, where interest rates are expected to be held steady.
 
Technical Analysis

Short-term trend: Bullish – Price has broken above the previous resistance zone around $3,380–$3,400 (Bearish Order Block zone) and is currently pulling back after reaching a strong resistance area at $3,440–$3,451.
 
Medium-term trend: Sideways – The market has experienced a prolonged accumulation phase within the $3,245–$3,400 range. The current move is attempting a breakout from this consolidation.

There has been a noticeable increase in volume during recent upward moves, confirming strong buying momentum.

 

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