Dollar Index Drifts as Rate Cut Bets Rise

Market Overview

U.S. Stock

U.S. equities extended gains as investors awaited the June jobs report, expected to shape the Fed’s policy direction. The S&P 500 rose 0.47%, Nasdaq climbed 0.94% driven by a tech rebound, while the Dow Jones remained flat. ADP data showing a loss of 33,000 private-sector jobs reinforced expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut.

Market sentiment was also boosted by news of a U.S.–Vietnam tariff deal reducing the rate to 20% from 46%. Notable gainers included Tesla (+5%), Nvidia (+2.6%), Apple (+2.2%), and Robinhood (+6.1%). Datadog surged 9% after being added to the S&P 500, replacing Juniper Networks.
 
Japan 

Japanese stocks traded mostly sideways, with the Nikkei index edging down 0.1% due to pressure from tech and pharmaceutical sectors, as investors await U.S. employment data and further tariff developments from the Trump administration. Market sentiment also remained cautious ahead of Japan’s Upper House election later this month, keeping USD/JPY hovering around 143.5 in a technical downtrend.

The global spotlight is on the U.S. June jobs report and the $3.3 trillion spending and tax-cut bill awaiting House approval. If the unemployment rate exceeds 4.3%, expectations for a Fed rate cut in July could surge to 70%.

Bitcoin(BTCUSD)

Fundamental Analysis

Bitcoin remains steady around the $107,000 level after the U.S. Senate passed a record $4.5 trillion spending package. This political move helped BTC recover from a low of $106,344 to over $107,800. Although the bill didn’t include specific crypto-related content, it had a positive ripple effect on market sentiment. However, caution still prevails, with over $219 million in positions liquidated—$60 million from BTC alone.

While price briefly retested the $109,700 mark—near its all-time high—derivatives data and ETF flows suggest that buying pressure remains fragile.
 
Technical Analysis

Price is showing a recovery trend after a corrective move down to the support zone at 105,281.The current structure suggests BTC may be forming a Higher Low – Higher High pattern, though it has yet to clearly break the key resistance level at 109,818.
 
The recent bullish candle was accompanied by high volume, but confirmation is still needed to determine whether this is a true or false breakout of the $109,818 level.
 
If volume remains strong as price breaks above 109,818, there is a high probability of a move toward the 112,000 zone.

U.S Dollar Index(DXY)

Fundamental Analysis

The DXY index is moving sideways around 96.7—near a 3.5-year low—as investors await the U.S. June jobs report. ADP data showed the U.S. lost 33,000 jobs, increasing expectations for a Fed rate cut as early as July (with odds rising to 27%). However, if the data is too weak, recession fears could weigh heavily on the USD.

The U.S.–Vietnam trade agreement also supported market sentiment, as Trump imposed a reduced 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods instead of the previously planned 46%, increasing pressure on other countries ahead of the July 9 deadline.
 
Technical Analysis

DXY is in a clear downtrend, as indicated by price trading below all three EMAs (34, 89, and 200). The alignment of EMA 34 < EMA 89 < EMA 200 reflects a stable bearish structure. Each successive high is lower than the previous, and each low continues to decline.
 
The RSI is currently around 41, below the neutral 50 level, signaling that market momentum still favors the bears. Although the RSI has bounced from the oversold zone, the rebound lacks strength to confirm a trend reversal.

Gold Spot(XAUUSD)

Fundamental Analysis

Gold prices moved slightly in the Asian session as risk sentiment improved on expectations of more trade agreements. President Trump announced that the U.S. and Vietnam had reached a tariff deal: U.S. goods will enter Vietnam duty-free, while Vietnamese goods will face a reduced 20% tariff, down from the previous 46%. This eased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

However, the ADP employment report showing the U.S. lost 33,000 jobs last month supported a gold rebound during the U.S. session.
 
Technical Analysis

Price is currently in a recovery phase following the sharp decline at the end of June. The structure suggests that a higher low may be forming around the $3,294 area, with price now retesting the supply zone between $3,380 and $3,400.
 
Short-term trend: Rebound to the upside, but still within a broader corrective structure.Volume has picked up as price bounced from the $3,294 level, indicating strong buying absorption. However, there has yet to be a breakout volume that clearly pushes price above the $3,380 zone.

 

 

Disclaimer

Derivative investments involve significant risks that may result in the loss of your invested capital. You are advised to carefully read and study the legality of the company, products, and trading rules before deciding to invest your money. Be responsible and accountable in your trading.

RISK WARNING IN TRADING

Transactions via margin involve leverage mechanisms, have high risks, and may not be suitable for all investors. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE OF PROFIT on your investment, so be cautious of those who promise profits in trading. It's recommended not to use funds if you're not ready to incur losses. Before deciding to trade, make sure you understand the risks involved and also consider your experience.