Oil Near 4.5-Month High as Israel–Iran Tensions Rise

Market Overview

China

China’s markets remained steady as investors closely watched developments at the Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai, where the country’s top three financial regulators are discussing new policy directions. The event highlights deepening cooperation between Shanghai and Hong Kong to bolster financial resilience amid global uncertainty.

The Chinese yuan (CNY) hovered around 7.18 per USD, supported by the PBoC’s strongest adjustment to the daily reference rate since March. The central bank is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the upcoming meeting, prioritizing financial stability amid Fed-driven volatility and rising Middle East tensions.

Japan

Japanese stocks reversed course after three consecutive gains, as fears of potential U.S. involvement alongside Israel in the Iran conflict drove investors away from risk assets. The Nikkei 225 fell 0.74%, while the Topix dropped 0.64%, weighed down by tech and pharmaceutical stocks.

Market sentiment was heavily impacted by rising geopolitical tensions. USD/JPY held steady around 144.9 on safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged but warned that summer inflation could rise due to U.S. tariffs, prompting investors to remain cautious amid global risks.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Fundamental Analysis

Bitcoin remains under pressure as global markets grow wary of escalating Middle East tensions. While investors shift to defensive assets, BTC has yet to show a clear safe-haven response.

On the policy front, the SEC reinforced its stance by confirming that PoS staking isn’t classified as a securities offering—providing greater legal clarity for U.S. crypto markets. Meanwhile, large fund outflows from exchanges and continued accumulation by whale wallets indicate that long-term investor sentiment remains intact.

Technical Analysis

BTC is currently trading within a narrow range around $104,000 – $106,000.

Overall Trend: Weak sideways movement, showing signs of exhaustion after the earlier rally from the Bullish Order Block (Bull OB) zone.

Volume: Spiked in early June during the breakout from Bull OB, but has since declined — indicating fading buying momentum and a shift back toward seller dominance.

WTI Crude Oil (USOIL)

Fundamental Analysis

Oil prices are hovering near a 4.5-month high as Israel–Iran tensions stretch into the seventh day. President Trump’s ambiguous stance on potential U.S. involvement has heightened concerns over supply risks, particularly at the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of global oil transit.

WTI slipped slightly below $75 due to profit-taking and position adjustments, but market sentiment remains cautious. The Fed held rates steady but warned of rising inflation from import tariffs, which could indirectly support oil demand if the economy avoids a deep recession.

Technical Analysis

Current Status: A clear uptrend has formed after breaking out of a long-term accumulation zone.Price Structure: A consistent pattern of Higher Highs and Higher Lows confirms a sustainable bullish trend. 

However, the $75.00 area is acting as short-term resistance, with signs of price consolidation emerging.Volume: The recent strong rally was accompanied by high volume, confirming genuine bullish momentum.

Gold Spot (XAUUSD)

Fundamental Analysis

Gold edged higher as safe-haven demand increased with Israel–Iran tensions entering the seventh day and the U.S. weighing military involvement. Meanwhile, the Fed held rates steady and projected two rate cuts this year, boosting market 
sentiment.

In the long term, central banks continue to accumulate gold aggressively. Global reserves have reached 36,000 tonnes — the highest since the Bretton Woods era. A survey shows 95% of central banks expect this gold-buying trend to persist, reflecting declining confidence in the USD and traditional reserve assets.

Technical Analysis

Current Status: The uptrend is stalling, with price entering a mild consolidation phase after a strong rally.Price Structure: A sequence of Higher Highs and Higher Lows indicates a bullish structure. 

However, the price is currently capped by a Supply Zone around $3,380–$3,400, signaling growing selling pressure.Volume: No breakout in volume at this resistance zone, reflecting market hesitation. The presence of relatively large bearish candles suggests sellers are gaining the upper hand.

 

 

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