WTI Nears $61.4 with Mixed Signals on Price Momentum

Market Overview

United Kingdom The British pound edged down to the 1.3549 region due to pressure from a strengthening US dollar and weakening domestic economic signals. Newly released data showed a sharp decline in UK car registrations in April, while retail and wholesale condition indices also turned negative in May. GBP/USD is currently testing the technical support zone at 1.3461–1.3495.

However, analysts believe the recent upward momentum of the GBP still has some foundation, supported by higher-than-expected inflation and expectations that the Bank of England (BOE) will proceed cautiously with rate cuts. The next BOE meeting is scheduled for June 19.

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin is consolidating around the $108,000–$110,000 range after rebounding from the $107,400 support area. Technical data suggests the trend remains bullish if BTC can break above the $110,750–$112,000 resistance zone, with potential targets toward $119,000–$122,000. However, failure to do so could lead to a pullback toward $107,000 or deeper to $105,000.

Market sentiment remains “greedy” with the Fear & Greed Index at 74. Analysts like Kiyosaki and Weslad continue to project strong upside for the year, amid limited supply and a sustained price accumulation pattern.

Dollar index (DXY)

Fundamental Analysis

The DXY index edged up 0.13% as the Japanese yen strengthened against G10 and Asian currencies in the morning session. Investors are closely watching today’s 40-year Japanese government bond auction—if results are weak, a potential JPY depreciation could support further USD gains. The USD/JPY pair is currently down 0.3% at 143.96.

On the macro front, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model just revised its Q2 U.S. growth forecast down from 2.4% to 2.2%, due to a downward adjustment in net private investment. Nevertheless, Wall Street remains strong, with the SPX up 2.05% and the DJI gaining 1.78%.

Technical Analysis

The DXY has broken its short-term uptrend line and is now in a short-term downtrend after failing to hold the 101.20 resistance zone. However, the 99.10 area recently acted as strong support, triggering a clear buying response and a noticeable price rebound.

The RSI currently stands at 58.22 — trending upward and not yet in overbought territory, suggesting there is still room for short-term upside. It has exited the oversold zone (<30) and crossed above its moving average, indicating a recovery momentum is in 
play.

Dollar - yen (USDJPY)

Fundamental Analysis

USD/JPY edged slightly lower to around 143.96, down 0.04%, following comments from BOJ Governor Ueda and Japan's Finance Minister Kato. Ueda emphasized risks stemming from tariff negotiations, while Kato pledged to closely monitor the bond market—both remarks contributed to a cautious tone in the JPY market.

Despite the minor pullback during the Asian session, USD/JPY remains elevated compared to earlier in the week, driven by concerns over Japan’s upcoming 40-year bond issuance. Additionally, the U.S.’s softened stance on tariffs with the EU has improved risk sentiment, helping to limit the pair’s downside.

Technical Analysis

Price has broken out of the short-term descending channel (red), signaling a potential trend reversal. Currently, there's a clear recovery momentum following a strong bounce from the $142.35 support zone, with price now approaching a major resistance area around $144.80–$145.50.

The RSI is around 59.6, indicating moderate bullish momentum and still below overbought levels (>70). The upward move could continue if RSI crosses above 60 and price breaks through the resistance zones. Trading volume surged sharply during the breakout, confirming the validity of the move.

Dollar - yen (USDJPY)

Fundamental Analysis

WTI crude oil prices climbed to around $61.4 per barrel (+0.56%) amid concerns that the U.S. may impose new sanctions on Russia as peace talks with Ukraine stall. Former President Trump’s firm stance on Russia has raised fears of tighter global supply.

Additionally, the U.S. ban on Chevron exporting oil from Venezuela has further shifted demand toward Middle Eastern crude. However, the upside remains limited due to expectations that OPEC+ may increase production by approximately 411,000 barrels per day at the upcoming meeting.

Technical Analysis

Price remains in a medium-term downtrend, consistently forming lower highs and lower lows. The price structure is still below the 200 EMA, confirming that bearish momentum continues to dominate.

Trading volume has been inconsistent, but tends to spike near support levels like $59.77 — indicating potential buying absorption at these zones.RSI is hovering around 47, near the neutral range, showing no clear overbought or oversold signals at 
the moment.

 

 

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