BTC/USD Forecast: Can Bitcoin Break $100K Amid Macro Tailwinds?

BTC/USD

Prediction: Increase

Bitcoin continues to maintain a strong medium-term uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows. After a pullback to the $95,866 zone, the price surged and broke through the supply zone at $97,766, currently trading around $98,709. The price structure remains stable, with the potential to reach $100,000 if momentum is sustained. 

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS 

Monetary Policy and Fed Impact:

The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, despite pressure from President Trump.

Chairman Powell emphasized that inflation remains above the 2% long-term target and unemployment has slightly increased, prompting a cautious stance.

Although rate cut expectations to 3.6% by the end of 2025 remain, the Fed currently prioritizes inflation control → neutral to positive for BTC.

Inflation and Market Drivers:

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has returned to “Greed” territory, reflecting a risk-on sentiment.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted strong inflows ($4.41 billion since March 26), confirming institutional capital is flowing into the crypto market.

Geopolitics and Market Sentiment:

Concerns over Trump’s trade policies are weakening business confidence in the U.S.

However, BTC remains a favored alternative safe haven amid macro and political uncertainty.

State-Level Policies in the U.S.:

Arizona and New Hampshire have signed laws establishing state-level Bitcoin reserve funds.

Arizona’s SB 1373 is close to passing, potentially allowing up to 10% of the state budget to be invested in BTC → a strong long-term confidence booster.

Bitcoin Mining & Shift to AI:

Core Scientific reported $580M in net profit despite revenue declines due to the halving.

Companies like Core Scientific, Hive Digital, and Hut 8 are shifting computing power toward AI and HPC, expected to deliver higher long-term margins.

Bitcoin’s 74% YoY price gain has partially offset profit drops from halving.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels 

• $98,848: Most recent high (May 8); breaking this could extend to $99,500 and $100,000
• $102,374: Next resistance level based on price structure

Key Support Levels 

• $97,766: Recently broken out zone; may be retested in the short term
• $95,000: Strong medium-term support, aligned with EMA 89
• $92,095: EMA 200 — strategic support if trend reverses

Technical Indicators:

EMA: Price is above EMA 34 ($95,770), EMA 89 ($94,066), and EMA 200 ($90,977) → solid confirmation of an ongoing uptrend. EMA 34 is currently leading with a steep positive slope.

RSI (H4): Now at 68.43 — nearing the overbought zone but without divergence or clear weakness signals.

Volume: Volume spiked during the breakout candle on May 8, confirming real buying interest. Watch if volume sustains as price approaches $100,000.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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