市場洞察

EUR/USD Outlook: Consolidation Between Key Levels as Market Awaits Fed Decision

Dupoin · 05 May 2025935.9K 閱讀

Market Overview

Europe

European markets opened positively at the start of the week, extending global gains following a strong U.S. jobs report and expectations that the Fed will hold interest rates steady. The STOXX 600 and FTSEurofirst 300 indexes both rose over 1.5%, led by financial and tech stocks. Investor sentiment improved on hopes that China and the U.S. might resume trade talks, though no concrete progress has been made. The euro edged higher against the U.S. dollar, while European government bond yields remained steady ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England policy meeting.

Cryptocurrency

The crypto market opened the week with a mild correction, as Bitcoin pulled back to the $93,500 zone after failing to break the $98,000 resistance. However, the medium-term outlook remains positive amid expectations that the Fed will hold interest rates steady, with potential easing later this year.

Market sentiment remains stable, supported by Bitcoin’s active address count hitting a 6-month high. Long-term bullish factors include proposals for South Korean state funds to invest in Bitcoin and a $9 billion agreement by the Maldives to build a crypto hub — signaling growing institutional adoption and global expansion of digital assets.

XAU/USD

Prediction: Short-term Recovery in a Medium-term Uptrend

After two consecutive weeks of decline and losing the $3,300 level, gold is showing signs of recovery from the $3,212 support zone. The week opened with a strong rally above $3,260/oz, signaling a return of buying pressure. However, the medium-term uptrend is not yet confirmed to resume unless the price breaks through the key resistance zone at $3,298 – $3,380.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Monetary Policy and Fed Impact:

This week, market attention turns to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. Despite ongoing pressure from President Trump urging the Fed to cut rates to support growth, the market is pricing in a high probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged. This reflects the Fed’s cautious stance amid a still-resilient U.S. economy.

Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped below 4%, the lowest in over a month, weakening the appeal of the USD and supporting gold.

Inflation and Market Drivers:

Key inflation data — the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) — will be released on Wednesday and Thursday. These will shape market expectations for the Fed’s future policy path.

If inflation exceeds expectations, the Fed may keep rates elevated for longer, pressuring gold. Conversely, if CPI and PPI fall short, expectations for rate cuts in H2 2025 may revive — a positive catalyst for gold.

Last week’s PCE data was nearly flat, further adding uncertainty to the Fed’s decision-making process.

Geopolitics and Market Sentiment:

U.S.-China tensions remain high, with vague statements from both sides regarding the possibility of resuming trade talks. Geopolitical instability continues to support gold’s elevated prices. Meanwhile, weakening U.S. stocks are increasing safe-haven demand for gold.

Additionally, signs of short-covering appeared early in the week, contributing to the rebound in gold prices.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels

$3,298.400: Immediate resistance, aligning with the H4 EMA200. A breakout here could extend gains into the gap resistance zone.
$3,380.692 – $3,440.000: Major resistance (gap + Bearish Order Block), where profit-taking pressure may emerge.

Key Support Levels

$3,212.249: Crucial support where the latest rebound began.
$3,167.704: Dynamic support — a previous high turned into support.
$3,117.400 – $3,087.130: Deeper support zone if the price weakens again.

Technical Indicators:

RSI is recovering from neutral territory, currently around 56. No strong overbought/oversold signal yet, but a break above 60 could reinforce the bullish trend.

Volume: Slight increase during the latest rally, indicating returning capital. More confirmation needed with continued bullish candles and sustained volume.

Price Action:

Gold is reacting positively to the $3,212 support zone.
If this level holds, consider buying on a break above $3,270, with a near-term target of $3,298.
If rejected, the price may revisit support to gather momentum for another push.

EUR/USD

Prediction: Consolidation – Signs of Mild Recovery

The EUR/USD pair is currently fluctuating within a consolidation range between 1.1275 and 1.1382. After bottoming at 1.1266 last week, the price has rebounded and is trading around 1.1333. However, the medium-term trend remains unclear due to pressure from the USD and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. The price holding above the EMA 89 indicates that buying interest is returning.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Monetary Policy and Fed Impact:

The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in this week’s meeting, supported by a strong March jobs report.

However, market odds for a rate cut in June have dropped to 37%, down from 64% a month ago.

Fed sentiment remains "patient," lacking a strong catalyst to push the USD significantly higher.

Inflation and Market Drivers:

The ISM Services PMI, due today, is seen as a key data point influencing the USD’s short-term strength.

Controlled devaluation moves by Asian currencies (notably the Taiwanese dollar and Chinese yuan) have slightly weakened the USD, creating room for EUR/USD to recover.

Markets remain cautious due to U.S. President Trump's unpredictable tariff policies.

Geopolitics and Market Sentiment:

Fears of a silent currency war between the U.S. and Asian countries are putting pressure on the USD.

At the same time, political uncertainty within the EU is weighing on the euro, even though U.S. economic data has not been strong enough to sustainably lift the dollar.

Safe-haven flows remain unclear, with capital rotating between U.S. equities and gold.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels

1.1382: Nearest resistance. A breakout would confirm a return to an uptrend==-
1.1484 – 1.1569 (Bearish Order Block): Strong supply zone where price has been rejected multiple times.
1.1573: Recent high — potential long-term target if the pair breaks above the Bear OB.

Key Support Levels

1.1275: Short-term support. Holding above maintains the recovery scenario.
1.1157 (EMA 200): Critical medium-term support. A break below would confirm a bearish trend.
1.1075: Strong support, coinciding with last month’s low.

Technical Indicators:

EMA:

EMA 34 (Green): Price is testing and may break above.
EMA 89 (Yellow): Acting as dynamic support, with positive price reaction.
EMA 200 (Blue): Still far below → long-term trend intact.

Volume: Strong volume around 1.1275 suggests buying interest. Sustained volume needed to break through resistance.

Price Action:

Buy on breakout above 1.1382, targeting 1.1484 – 1.1569.
Sell if price breaks below 1.1275, targeting 1.1157 – 1.1075.
Watch closely the 1.133 – 1.138 zone for breakout confirmation signals.

BTC/USD

Prediction: Short-term Correction

Bitcoin is currently undergoing a short-term correction after failing to break the strong resistance around $97,800–$98,000. The price has dropped below $95,000 and is now testing the support zone around $93,500. However, the medium- and long-term trend remains bullish as long as the price holds above the 20-day EMA ($92,100).

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Monetary Policy and Fed Impact:

The market is awaiting the Fed’s interest rate decision on May 7. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut remains very low. However, the market may react strongly after the meeting. If the Fed signals potential easing in the second half of 2025, this could support Bitcoin and other risk assets.

Inflation and Market Momentum:

The upcoming U.S. April CPI report will be a key factor.

If CPI > forecast: pressure increases on the Fed, possibly pushing yields higher and weighing on BTC.

If CPI < forecast: expectations of lower rates will persist — bullish for BTC.

Meanwhile, the number of active Bitcoin addresses has surged to a six-month high (925,914), reflecting rising investor participation and interest.

Geopolitics and Market Sentiment:

In South Korea, presidential candidate Kim Moon-soo proposed allowing national funds like NPS and KIC to invest in Bitcoin — a signal of potential institutional adoption.

Maldives signed a $9 billion deal to build a cryptocurrency hub — confirming the global shift toward digital assets.

Overall sentiment remains positive but awaits confirmation from support levels to resume the uptrend.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels

$95,250: Resistance near the H1 downtrend line — must break to regain momentum.
$95,750: Next resistance — aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the $97,885 → $93,570 drop.
$97,800 – $98,000: Strong supply zone — only a breakout above this area could push BTC toward $100,000.

Key Support Levels

$93,500: Current support — being tested.
$93,200 & $92,100 (EMA 200): Key levels to watch; breaking them could lead to a deeper correction to $91,200 – $88,750.

Technical Indicators:

EMA: Price is below the 34 and 89 EMAs on H4, indicating short-term weakness. However, it remains above the 200 EMA.

Volume: Increased volume during recent corrections — a sign of sustained selling pressure.

Price Action:

If BTC holds above $93,500 and bounces, consider buying toward targets at $95,250 – $95,750.
If it breaks below $93,200, monitor reaction at EMA 200 ($92,100). A deeper drop could target $91,200 – $88,750.
On a break above $95,750, bullish momentum may resume toward $97,800 – $100,000.

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