市場分析

EUR/USD Outlook: Technical Correction Amid Dollar Strength

Dupoin · 25 Apr774.5K 閱讀

Market Overview

Europe

European markets are capitalizing on the weakening U.S. dollar, which has dropped nearly 10% since President Trump took office in January 2025.

Confidence in the euro is rising as the DXY index—a measure of dollar strength—hovers around 99.6, significantly below its early-year peak of 111. Investors expect transatlantic tensions to accelerate eurozone financial integration, with the €750 billion Eurobond program launched post-Covid remaining a key political precedent.

Amid growing U.S. unpredictability, the euro is seen as a potential challenger to the U.S. dollar’s reserve currency dominance. The eurozone banking system held $34 trillion in total assets by the end of 2024—40% larger than that of the U.S. However, progress is still hindered by the lack of a true “safe asset” equivalent to U.S. Treasury bonds.

China

China's economy is under heavy pressure from the escalating trade war with the United States. With Washington imposing tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese goods, exports to the U.S. are projected to drop by two-thirds in the coming quarters, with overall exports expected to fall by 10% in 2025. Although Q1 GDP grew by 5.4%, full-year forecasts have been downgraded to around 4% due to the impact of tariffs and weakening global demand.

Overcapacity remains a major issue—ethylene and propylene output may exceed domestic demand by 121% and 179%. Industrial capacity utilization fell to 74.1% in Q1. Weak domestic demand limits the ability to pivot from exports, pushing Chinese firms to seek markets in the Middle East and Africa.

XAU/USD

Prediction: Short-Term Correction

Gold prices remain in a long-term uptrend, with a structure of higher highs and higher lows since early 2025. After setting an all-time high at $3,500.200, prices corrected to the $3,298.400 zone and are now in a recovery phase. The appearance of a gap and Bearish Order Block (OB) around $3,380 may increase short-term profit-taking pressure, but the long-term bullish momentum remains intact if prices hold above the $3,298–$3,250 support zone.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Monetary policy and Fed influence:

The U.S. Federal Reserve is taking a “patient” stance on adjusting monetary policy amid ongoing uncertainty over U.S.–China tariffs. Currently, markets are pricing in around 84 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2025, which supports gold’s bullish momentum.

Bond yields and USD strength:

The U.S. dollar weakened in the Asian session, making gold more attractive to international investors and aiding the precious metal’s rebound. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield remains around 3.95%, adding downward pressure on the USD.

Inflation and economic data:

Markets are awaiting key economic data next week, including the University of Michigan Sentiment Index and CPI figures. These will be pivotal in shaping the Fed’s direction and interest rate expectations.

Geopolitics and market sentiment:

U.S.–China trade negotiations are back in focus as President Trump refuted China’s claims that no talks were taking place. However, China stated it will only negotiate if the U.S. lifts all unilateral tariffs.

Meanwhile, tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated following a missile and drone attack on Kyiv that killed at least 12 people, increasing global risk sentiment and reinforcing gold’s role as a safe haven.

In the long term, the trend of reserve diversification by developing countries—especially China—continues to boost demand for gold.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels

$3,380.692: Gap and Bearish OB zone – a breakout here could lead to a retest of $3,440 and the all-time high at $3,50
$3,440.000: Mid-term resistance.
$3,500.200: All-time high and strong psychological zone.

Key Support Levels

$3,298.400: Closest support, aligned with the 1.618 Fibonacci level and Bullish OB zone.
$3,250.000: Near EMA89, a critical mid-term support
$3,212.249: Extended support – near the EMA200.

Technical Indicators:

RSI: Currently at 53.03, up from the previous 47.7 level. This suggests selling pressure is weakening, though a clear bullish reversal isn't confirmed yet. A move above 60 would confirm recovery momentum.

Volume: Trading volume remains relatively high during the recent correction. If price continues rising with strong volume, this could confirm the continuation of the uptrend.

Price Action:

Price is currently trading near the $3,380 resistance zone. If rejected here and support at $3,298 is broken, a drop to $3,250 is possible.
However, if prices hold and bounce from the EMA 34 around $3,332, it could open up a path toward retesting the $3,440–$3,500 zone.

Investors should closely monitor developments in U.S.–China trade talks and upcoming U.S. inflation data. A low-interest-rate environment, weakening USD, and ongoing geopolitical risks continue to support gold’s long-term bullish outlook, despite potential short-term technical corrections.

EUR/USD

Prediction: Correction

EUR/USD is currently in a corrective phase after being rejected from the strong resistance zone of 1.148 – 1.157 (Bearish Order Block). On the 4H chart, the short-term price structure is slightly sideways with descending highs, indicating weakening bullish momentum. The price is now testing the 1.1275 support zone. If this level holds, a short-term rebound may occur; otherwise, a break below it could open the path to deeper levels like 1.1075 and 1.0946.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

U.S. economic policy and market sentiment:

President Donald Trump has temporarily stepped back from his aggressive tariff stance against China, boosting equities and the U.S. dollar. However, ongoing contradictions and unpredictability in U.S. economic policy continue to stir investor sentiment.

The DXY index rose slightly by 0.27% this week, ending a four-week losing streak, which has added downward pressure on EUR/USD.

The euro and expectations of international status:

Amid U.S. instability, Europe is increasingly viewed as a potential counterweight to the U.S. dollar, especially if financial integration progresses via joint Eurobond issuance.

However, the lack of a comprehensive "safe asset" like U.S. Treasuries limits the euro’s ability to rival the dollar’s global reserve role.

Trade negotiations and global alliances:

While the U.S. has made little progress with China, it is actively negotiating with Japan and South Korea, raising hopes for regional stability in the Asia-Pacific.

Mixed signals from the U.S. government have slowed capital outflows from risk assets, but have not fully reversed market sentiment.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels

1.13828: Nearby resistance – if price rebounds but fails to break this level, further downside may follow.
1.14842 – 1.15697: Strong Bearish Order Block – previously a significant sell-off zone.

Key Support Levels

1.12753: Short-term support, currently being tested.
1.10759: Intersection with EMA200 – a critical dynamic support level if the downtrend continues.
1.09461 – 1.08747: Strong demand zone from past rallies.

Technical Indicators:

RSI ~42.6: Near the lower neutral zone, suggesting bearish pressure still dominates slightly, though not yet oversold.

EMA:

EMA34 & EMA89: Price has fallen below EMA34 and is now testing EMA89 → clear sign of correction.
EMA200 (1.1075): Still pointing upward → long-term trend remains intact.

Price Action:

Watch the reaction around 1.1275 for the next directional clue. If the price bounces, a rebound to 1.1382 – 1.148 is possible. If broken, the next targets are 1.1075 and 1.0946.

Traders should monitor the 1.1275 support level and the movement of the U.S. dollar following updates from the White House and key U.S. economic data to develop an appropriate trading strategy.

BTC/USD

Prediction: Increase

Bitcoin remains in a medium-term uptrend after breaking out from the prolonged accumulation zone between $85,000 and $88,800. Currently, BTC is facing short-term profit-taking pressure around the $94,500 zone, which has previously acted as strong resistance. The bullish momentum remains intact as long as key support levels hold. However, investors should be cautious of a possible technical correction if BTC fails to break through this critical resistance zone.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Macroeconomic policy and market landscape:

Bitcoin has rebounded sharply from its 2025 low of $75,160 to around $94,000, despite macroeconomic volatility and tightened liquidity. The Trump administration’s creation of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve signals that BTC is increasingly being viewed as a strategic asset—on par with gold.

Long-term projection by ARK Invest:

ARK Invest has raised its bull-case forecast for Bitcoin to $2.4 million by 2030, based on:

Increased institutional allocation into Bitcoin as a "digital gold" store of value.

BTC is projected to capture 60% of gold’s market cap and 6.5% of global financial assets.

Emerging markets may adopt BTC as an inflation hedge, boosting long-term demand.

Market sentiment and expectations:

Recent reports indicate institutional capital is returning to the crypto space. Markets are responding positively to steady technical signals like RSI holding above 50 and MACD remaining in bullish territory. However, the $94,500 level is a key psychological barrier that must be broken for the next bullish leg.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels

$94,200 – $94,500: Short-term resistance, previously rejected several times.
$94,650: Next breakout level — if cleared, targets shift to $95,500.
$97,766: Major supply zone — extended target if bullish momentum continues.

Key Support Levels

$93,100: Rising trendline support aligned with recent price structure.
$92,750: Key technical support — aligns with 61.8% Fib retracement from $91,711 to $94,450.
$90,500 – $90,000: Major support zone where the current uptrend began.

Technical Indicators:

RSI: Currently at 64.4, still in bullish territory but showing signs of slowing. RSI previously reached the overbought zone (>70) and is now cooling off slightly — indicating potential sideways consolidation or minor pullback before a breakout.

Volume: Spiked significantly during the breakout from $88,800 to $94,000, but has since tapered off in the consolidation phase — reflecting market hesitation at the $94,500 resistance.

Price Action:

A break above $94,650 could open the door to further gains toward $95,500 – $96,200.
If BTC fails to clear this resistance, monitor the $93,100 and $92,750 support zones. A breakdown below these could trigger a correction back to the $90,500 area — a safer re-entry zone.

Trading Strategy:

Buy-on-dip near $92,750 – $93,100, targeting $94,500 – $95,500.
Wait for breakout above $94,650 to enter trend-following positions, targeting $96,000+.
Avoid FOMO near $94K without volume confirmation.

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