市場洞察

As Big Tech Struggles, Netflix Emerges as Wall Street's Favorite Defensive Stock

Mellissa · 17 Apr 202514K 閱讀

Image Credt: Reuters

Netflix (NFLX) is set to report its first-quarter earnings after the market closes on Thursday, with the company standing out among Big Tech names in an uncertain economic landscape, partly shaped by President Trump's trade war.

"Given the recent market volatility, Netflix’s resilient subscription model and essential entertainment offerings, which have historically performed well during recessions, make it a defensive choice for investors," Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich said on Tuesday. Netflix stock has risen 9% this year, contrasting with declines of 17% or more seen by major tech peers like Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), while the S&P 500 is down by about 9% in 2025.

Here’s what Wall Street expects for Netflix’s first-quarter report, based on Bloomberg consensus estimates:

Revenue: $10.50 billion, compared to $9.37 billion last year; Netflix's guidance: $10.42 billion
Earnings per share: $5.68, compared to $5.28 last year; Netflix's guidance: $5.58

This will mark Netflix's first earnings report without subscriber numbers, as the company shifts focus to engagement and top-line growth. By the end of 2024, Netflix had 301.6 million global subscribers. Netflix plans to disclose subscriber data only as it hits key milestones.

"Netflix has won the streaming wars. Case closed," MoffettNathanson analyst Robert Fishman wrote last month. "With more content, Netflix drives higher engagement, attracting more subscribers and enhancing pricing power in a virtuous cycle."

As reported by the Wall Street Journal, Netflix is targeting ambitious goals, such as doubling its revenue by 2030 and reaching a $1 trillion market value, with its current market cap exceeding $400 billion.

"If Netflix sees room for continued subscriber growth, it should reassure investors about its long-term prospects," Reif Ehrlich from BofA said in response to the Journal report. She maintains a Buy rating with a $1,175 price target on the stock.

Netflix had a record-breaking 2024, with 16% revenue growth and a 600 basis-point increase in operating margins to nearly 27%, surpassing the company’s original guidance. It added 41 million global subscribers last year, surpassing the 36.6 million added during the pandemic surge in 2020.

Crackdowns on password sharing helped boost subscriber numbers, and while the immediate benefits of these crackdowns may slow, Netflix expects further subscriber growth from its content lineup, with the ad-supported tier serving as a long-term growth driver.

Earlier this year, Netflix raised prices across its subscription tiers in the U.S., including for the ad-supported plan, which remains one of the most affordable at $7.99 per month. The company justified the price hikes, saying its content has never been better, with more movies and TV shows slated for release in 2025. Popular franchises such as "Stranger Things," "Squid Game," and "Wednesday" are expected to return later this year. Additionally, sports and live events, like the Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson match and NFL Christmas Day games, have become key parts of Netflix’s offering. Rumors suggest Netflix might bid for UFC broadcasting rights next.

Wall Street analysts have a median price target of around $1,085 per share for Netflix, with 45 Buy ratings, 13 Holds, and just two Sells, according to the latest Bloomberg data.