市場分析

Oil Prices Surge 1% Following Major Selloff Triggered by US Tariffs

Amos Simanungkalit · 08 Apr64.7K 閱讀

Image Credit: Reuters

Oil prices rose over 1% on Tuesday, recovering after a significant decline in recent sessions driven by concerns that U.S. tariffs could harm demand and trigger a global recession.

Brent crude futures increased by 81 cents, or 1.26%, to $65.02 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 92 cents, or 1.52%, to $61.61 at 0051 GMT. On Monday, oil prices had dropped 2%, approaching a four-year low, amid fears that U.S. President Donald Trump's latest trade tariffs could push the global economy into a recession, thereby reducing energy demand. However, markets expect the downward pressure on oil prices to have a limit.

Trump asserts that the tariffs—starting at 10% for all U.S. imports and targeting up to 50% on some items—will help revive the U.S. industrial sector, which he claims has been in decline due to decades of trade liberalization. While several countries are seeking exemptions or reductions, China, the world’s second-largest economy, has retaliated with its own tariffs. Trump has warned that more tariffs will be imposed on China if Beijing does not reverse its countermeasures.

According to market analyst Tony Sycamore, if China maintains its position, the total tariff on its imports to the U.S. could reach 104%, a move likely to worsen global market sentiment, cause significant drops in stock markets, and accelerate the global economic downturn.

A Reuters poll on Monday indicated that U.S. crude oil and distillate inventories were expected to rise by approximately 1.6 million barrels, signaling weak demand.

With U.S. oil production costs estimated around $60 per barrel, there could be a price floor, as some producers may reduce investment and drilling. This would slow output growth, potentially leading to a decline in U.S. production from its current 13.4 million barrels per day. Reduced activity in the U.S. could support a price floor around $50 per barrel for WTI, according to Eurasia Group.