市場洞察

US Dollar Outlook Turns Cautious as Tariffs Weigh on Sentiment: Reuters Poll

Amos Simanungkalit · 02 Apr 202558K 閱讀

Image Credit: Reuters

Despite concerns about the economic impact of President Donald Trump's unpredictable tariff policies, the U.S. dollar is expected to stabilize in the coming months, according to a Reuters survey of foreign exchange strategists.

More than one-third of the strategists surveyed expressed worry about the dollar's diminishing role as a safe haven in currency markets. Trump's announcement of new tariffs on U.S. trading partners, set for Wednesday, has added to the confusion and uncertainty, especially in currency trading.

Recent data from commodities and futures trading showed that traders have significantly reduced their long positions on the dollar, with net short positions emerging for the first time since October. This shift is partly due to growing speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates three times this year, up from the previous expectation of two cuts.

When asked how positioning might change by the end of April, the survey revealed no clear consensus. This marks a shift from two months ago, when strategists had expected traders to continue increasing their "long" positions on the dollar.

Paul Mackel, global head of FX research at HSBC, noted that investors have grown fatigued with trying to navigate the impact of U.S. tariffs on currencies. Many are reluctant to pre-position themselves when the outcome is uncertain.

Of the 35 strategists who responded to questions about month-end positioning from March 27 to April 1, 17 said they didn’t expect much change, while nine predicted an increase in net short positions, and seven anticipated a decrease. Only two strategists expected a return to net long positions.

According to a broader survey of 69 strategists, the euro, currently around $1.08, is expected to trade at $1.07 in three months, then rise to $1.08 in six months, and climb to about $1.10 in a year. The dollar index has dropped by about 4% this year after a 7% gain in 2024, partially driven by optimism about Germany’s infrastructure and defense spending, which bolstered the euro.

"We’re in a wait-and-see mode," Mackel said. "While some have given up on the dollar, we believe it’s unlikely to decline significantly over the next six to twelve months."

Concerns Over Safe-Haven Status

Some strategists are worried that Trump’s isolationist policies could accelerate the de-dollarization trend over the long term, following years of the dollar’s dominance. Nearly 40% of those surveyed expressed concerns about the erosion of the dollar's safe-haven status in global markets. The remaining 60% were not worried.

George Saravelos, global head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, said, "There are some tentative risks that the dollar’s safe-haven status may be eroding." He pointed out that a weakening U.S. outlook could reduce the dollar’s appeal as a risk-off asset, and a broader challenge to U.S. institutions could diminish foreign investment in U.S. assets.

Even those who weren’t particularly concerned acknowledged the possibility of gradual erosion over time. Arindam Sandilya, co-head of global FX strategy at JP Morgan, said, "It’s unlikely we’ll see a rapid shift away from the dollar, but there will likely be a slow decline in the dollar’s share of central bank reserves, with a search for alternative assets like gold."