XAU/USD Outlook: Navigating Gold's Short-Term Correction in an Uptrend

XAU/USD 
 
Prediction: Correction in Uptrend 

Gold prices are in a general uptrend but are currently showing signs of a correction after reaching a historic high of $3,057. In the past two sessions, gold has dropped a total of 0.88%, marking the most significant correction since late February 2025. However, prices remain above the key psychological support level of $3,000, indicating that the uptrend is still intact. 

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS 

Monetary Policy and Fed Impact 

Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Fed, recently stated that the progress in controlling inflation may slow down in the coming months. As a result, he expects the Fed to implement only one interest rate cut in 2025, with a reduction of 0.25 percentage points — lower than the previously expected two rate cuts. 

Previously, the market had anticipated two rate cuts this year, so Bostic’s cautious outlook added pressure on gold prices as expectations for monetary easing weakened. 

However, since inflation remains a significant concern, gold continues to be viewed as a safe-haven asset in case the Fed maintains higher interest rates for longer than anticipated. 

U.S. Trade Policy 

President Donald Trump recently announced that he would not impose the full set of new tariffs on April 2 as initially planned. Additionally, some countries may be exempt from the new tariff policy. 

This move has eased concerns about trade tensions, which had been one of the key factors supporting gold prices in recent times. The relaxation of tariff policies has slightly reduced safe-haven demand for gold, contributing to short-term downward pressure on prices. 
However, Trump reaffirmed his plan to impose a 25% tariff on countries purchasing oil and gas from Venezuela, raising geopolitical instability risks in the region — a factor that continues to provide some support for gold prices. 

Upcoming Economic Data 

The market is currently focused on the upcoming PCE Index report — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — scheduled for release this Friday. This data will play a crucial role in shaping market expectations regarding monetary policy in the coming months. Additionally, today's U.S. Consumer Confidence report and New Home Sales data are also key releases to watch. 
 
 Investment Flows and Market Sentiment 

Gold investment funds have continued to record the strongest inflows in over a year, indicating sustained investor confidence in gold prices in the medium term. This reflects that major financial institutions still consider gold a safe-haven asset amid global economic uncertainties. 

However, profit-taking pressure following gold’s recent record high has also contributed to the current short-term correction trend. 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 

Key Resistance Levels 

●    $3,025 – Current resistance zone; if the price recovers and breaks above this level, it may continue toward $3,038 or higher. 

●    $3,050 – Strong resistance; watch for price reactions at this level if there’s a strong recovery. 

●    $3,057 – The recent all-time high, a crucial level confirming the continuation of the uptrend. 

Key Support Levels 

●    $3,000 – Strong psychological support; if prices stay above this level, the uptrend remains intact. 

●    $2,982 – The nearest support zone, aligning with the accumulation area before the recent strong rally. 

●    $2,956 – A stronger support level, crucial if the correction deepens. 

●    $2,929 – A solid support zone aligned with the 200 EMA, marking the long-term equilibrium level. 

Technical Indicators: 

Currently, the RSI is at 44.36, indicating increasing correction pressure but not yet entering oversold territory. If RSI falls below 40, the risk of a deeper correction will rise significantly. 

Gold’s uptrend remains dominant in the medium term; however, short-term correction pressure is building. Holding above the $3,000 support zone will be critical to confirming the next recovery phase. Investors should closely monitor Fed interest rate updates and developments in U.S. trade policy to adjust their trading strategies accordingly. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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