XAUUSD Market Analysis: Gold Faces Resistance, Traders Watch Key Data
Market Overview
United Kingdom
The UK market this week witnessed the British pound continuing its strong upward momentum, reaching its highest level in 2025 at 1.2943 USD during European trading on Friday. This recovery was driven by positive economic data from the UK, persistent inflation, and expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will be cautious in cutting interest rates. Additionally, market sentiment was supported by investors reducing their short positions on the pound, which helped the currency maintain its upward trend.
The US dollar started the week with a clear weakening trend due to concerns about the US labor market and the negative impact of President Trump's tariff policies. Investors turned to safe-haven assets such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, pushing both to multi-month highs.
Japan
The Japanese market started the week with a strengthening yen, trading around 147.3 JPY/USD. Concerns about a potential US economic recession and global trade tensions prompted investors to seek safe-haven assets like the yen. Domestic data also showed Japan’s current account deficit in January, marking the first deficit in two years, along with a 1.8% decline in real wages, which impacted consumer purchasing power.
Meanwhile, the Nikkei index remained nearly flat at 36,886 points, as gains in consumer and railway stocks offset losses in the electronics and machinery sectors. Investors are closely monitoring the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary policy, with a high likelihood that the BoJ will maintain interest rates in March but may raise rates later in the
year to normalize its monetary policy.
BTCUSD
Prediction: Bearish
Bitcoin's price is in a clear downtrend with lower highs and lower lows. Currently, the price is trading around the $80,000 zone after a sharp drop over the past weekend. The bearish trend is reinforced as the price remains below key EMA levels (EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200), and the RSI remains in the lower range.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Monetary Policy and U.S. Impact
Recent remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump about "laying the foundation for the future" have raised concerns about aggressive fiscal tightening policies, increasing financial market uncertainty and putting pressure on Bitcoin's price.
The signing of an executive order to establish the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve indicates a shift in policy stance. However, the lack of clarity regarding funding sources and management methods may fuel short-term skepticism toward Bitcoin.
The U.S. stock market dropped 0.85% in the latest session, reflecting broader negative investor sentiment.
Politics and Geopolitics
The appointment of Mark Carney, a known Bitcoin skeptic, as Canada's Prime Minister adds further negative pressure on the cryptocurrency market. Carney has previously criticized Bitcoin as a highly speculative asset that cannot serve as a stable store of value.
Canada may tighten Bitcoin-related regulations, adding additional pressure to the market.
U.S. Legal and Policy Developments
The recent passing of the Utah Bitcoin bill excluded provisions for establishing a state Bitcoin reserve fund, weakening short-term growth expectations for Bitcoin.
However, with 25 Bitcoin-related bills still under review across various states, there remains room for recovery in the medium to long term if positive news emerges.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
● $83,354: The nearest resistance level. If the price rebounds to this level but fails to break through, selling pressure may return strongly.
$88,756: A major resistance zone aligning with the EMA 89, posing a significant barrier if Bitcoin attempts a strong recovery.
$92,095: A critical resistance area near the EMA 200, serving as a major hurdle for a potential trend reversal.
Key Support Levels
● $80,000: The current support zone; a break below this could lead to further declines.
● $78,197: The next strong support, aligning with the recent local bottom.
● $76,619 and $73,864: Deeper support levels in case Bitcoin continues to make new lows.
Technical Indicators:
RSI: Currently at 35.11, indicating the market is in slightly oversold territory but without clear signs of recovery yet. If RSI rises above 40 and the price holds above $80,000, a minor rebound could be expected.
Trading Volume: No significant spikes, indicating investor sentiment remains cautious.
Bitcoin is in a downtrend with strong selling pressure driven by technical factors and negative political and financial news. Investors should closely monitor price action around the $80,000 level to determine appropriate trading strategies. Strict risk management is essential given the ongoing market volatility.
XAUUSD
Prediction: Sideways
Gold continues to maintain its medium-term uptrend, currently fluctuating around the $2,910 - $2,929 range after a short-term pullback. Although selling pressure has emerged, the bullish structure remains intact. Investors should closely watch key support zones to identify suitable trading opportunities.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Monetary Policy and Fed Impact
The market is anticipating the release of CPI (Wednesday) and PPI (Thursday) data, which could provide further clues about the Fed’s monetary policy direction. Higher-than-expected inflation data may prompt the Fed to maintain elevated interest rates for longer, putting short-term pressure on gold prices.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 3.95%, reducing the appeal of the USD and providing support for gold.
Market Sentiment and Geopolitical Factors
Weak USD: The DXY index has dropped to 103.5, its lowest in four months, making gold more attractive to international investors.
U.S. Recession Concerns: President Donald Trump's refusal to comment on the likelihood of a U.S. recession has heightened market anxiety.
Trade Tensions: Trump's imposition of a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China has fueled inflation concerns and global economic growth fears, boosting demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
China's Economic Slowdown: China's CPI fell sharply, marking its largest decline in 13 months.
This adds to global recession concerns, driving investors toward safe-haven assets such as gold.
Market Outlook
Analyst Kyle Rodda predicts that gold could soon surpass the $3,000 mark in the coming months, reflecting strong demand for safe-haven investments.
However, volatility may increase if U.S. inflation data exceeds expectations, potentially shifting the Fed's monetary policy outlook.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
$2,929: The nearest resistance zone; breaking above this could open the path toward the recent high at $2,956.
$2,956: A strong resistance level; if breached, it would confirm continued bullish momentum with a potential target around $3,000.
Key Support Levels
● $2,906: The closest support zone, aligning with the EMA 34 and EMA 89. Holding above this level is crucial for the continuation of the uptrend.
● $2,891: The next solid support; breaking below this could push prices lower toward $2,850.
● $2,858: A strong support level coinciding with the EMA 200, acting as a crucial barrier for maintaining the long-term uptrend.
Technical Indicators:
RSI: Currently at 52.64, indicating a neutral state. No clear overbought or oversold signals, suggesting the market is in a consolidation phase.
Trading Volume: Remains at an average level, reflecting cautious investor sentiment as the price hovers near resistance zones.
The overall trend remains bullish, with the potential to break above the $3,000 mark in the medium term. Investors should closely monitor the upcoming CPI and PPI data, as well as developments in U.S. trade policies, to adjust their trading strategies accordingly.
USOIL (WTI Crude Oil)
Prediction: Decrease
WTI crude oil is in a strong downtrend, characterized by lower highs and lower lows in recent sessions. The price is currently hovering around $66.58, near the key support level at $65.35. Both technical indicators and fundamental factors suggest that downward pressure remains dominant.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Economic Data and Monetary Policy
● Weak Chinese Economic Data:
China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded its sharpest decline in 13 months, coupled with prolonged producer price deflation. This raises concerns about weakening oil demand from China, the world's largest oil importer.
● U.S. Trade Policy:
President Donald Trump has adjusted tariffs on Mexico and Canada but maintained retaliatory measures against Canada and China. This ongoing economic uncertainty is weighing on oil prices.
Trump also announced plans to intensify sanctions on Russia if a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine isn’t reached, adding geopolitical risks to the market.
Oil Supply Factors
OPEC+ recently announced plans to increase oil production starting in April, adding further pressure on prices amid weakening demand.
However, Russia indicated that OPEC+ may reverse this decision if market imbalances worsen, which could help limit excessive declines.
Market Sentiment and Safe-Haven Assets
Market sentiment remains negative amid recession fears, especially after Trump refused to rule out the possibility of a U.S. economic crisis.
The USD has weakened slightly, while safe-haven currencies like the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc have strengthened, indicating a risk-off sentiment.
Both U.S. and Chinese stock markets have declined, reflecting growing investor uncertainty.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
$67.25: The nearest resistance zone; if the price rebounds but fails to break this level, selling pressure may intensify.
$68.65: A significant resistance level aligning with the EMA 34, acting as a key barrier in the ongoing downtrend.
● $70.45: A major resistance zone near the EMA 200; a breakout above this would confirm a potential bullish reversal.
Key Support Levels
● $65.35: The key support zone; breaking below this level could trigger further declines.
● $65.19: A strong support area and the most recent low; breaching this level may accelerate selling pressure and lead to a deeper sell-off.
Technical Indicators:
RSI: Currently at 37.45, indicating slight oversold conditions. However, RSI is still above the 30 threshold, suggesting room for further downside.
Fundamental factors such as weak Chinese economic data, U.S. trade policy uncertainty, and OPEC+'s production increase continue to weigh on oil prices. Investors should closely monitor the $65.35 - $65.19 support zone for potential entry points or signs of intensified bearish momentum. Risk management is crucial given the ongoing volatility in the market.
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