市場分析

Surprising China Data and Tariff Fears Lead to Tesla’s Stock Decline

Amos Simanungkalit · 05 Mar24.3K 閱讀

Image Credit: Getty Images

Tesla (TSLA) shares dropped 3% on March 4, following a recent decline, amid weak sales, tariff concerns, and CEO Elon Musk’s growing political involvement. Since President Donald Trump’s inauguration, the stock has lost a third of its market value.

Tesla’s sales numbers in China showed a sharp drop, with February’s wholesale figures—including exports and retail sales—falling by 49% year-over-year, according to the China Passenger Car Association. The company sold just 30,688 new energy vehicles (NEVs) in February, the lowest monthly total in over two years. In contrast, Chinese rival BYD sold 318,233 vehicles during the same period.

In Europe, Tesla’s sales were down 45% in January, while overall industry sales in the region surged by 37%, according to Bloomberg. Tesla’s fourth-quarter earnings, reported in late January, missed analysts' expectations, with automotive revenue dropping 8% to $19.8 billion, and operating income falling 23% to $1.6 billion. The company attributed this decline mainly to lower average selling prices across its Model 3, Model Y, Model S, and Model X lines.

Musk’s political activities may be affecting Tesla’s customer base, which traditionally leans toward left-leaning, environmentally conscious buyers. Musk’s increasing ties with Trump, including his leadership of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a government organization aimed at reducing the federal workforce and cutting regulations, could be alienating some of Tesla’s core customers.

Another concern is the 25% tariff imposed on imports from Mexico and Canada, effective March 4, which could increase costs for Tesla's suppliers. UBS noted that the market hasn’t fully priced in the impact of these tariffs, especially with no last-minute deal between the countries.

Amid these concerns, analysts have adjusted their Tesla price targets. Bank of America lowered its target from $490 to $380, maintaining a neutral rating, citing issues like declining vehicle sales in Europe, a potential decline in the brand’s sentiment, and delays in the launch of the low-cost model expected in the first half of 2025.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley reinstated Tesla as a "Top Pick" in U.S. autos, although it acknowledged a near 30% drop in shares year-to-date. The firm sees this as an "attractive entry point" for long-term investors, despite concerns that Tesla’s 2025 deliveries may decline year-over-year. Morgan Stanley maintained an overweight rating and a $430 price target.

Tesla’s stock, which peaked at $480 in December, is now trading at $274.