市場分析

Oil Rises on Positive Chinese Manufacturing Data

Amos Simanungkalit · 03 Mar14.9K 閱讀

Image Credit: Reuters

Oil prices rose by 1% on Monday, supported by positive manufacturing data from China, the world’s largest crude importer, which fueled optimism about fuel demand. However, concerns over potential U.S. tariffs on global trade kept uncertainty about economic growth in the mix.

Brent crude gained 76 cents, or 1%, reaching $73.57 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 75 cents, or 1.1%, to $70.51 per barrel. The increase followed official data released on Saturday showing that China’s manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest pace in three months in February, driven by higher new orders and purchases, leading to a solid production uptick. Investors are looking toward China’s annual parliamentary meeting, starting March 5, for additional measures to support its struggling economy.

IG market analyst Tony Sycamore noted that the recovery in China's NBS manufacturing PMI back into expansionary territory could be driving oil prices higher. However, he warned that the country’s economic outlook remains uncertain, especially with U.S. tariffs on exports set to take effect on March 4.

Goldman Sachs analysts were slightly more optimistic about the data, suggesting that it points to stable or slightly better economic activity in China in early 2025. However, the new 10% U.S. tariffs could trigger retaliatory actions from China.

Last month, both Brent and WTI saw their first monthly declines in three months, as concerns over the U.S.-China trade war and tariffs dampened investor confidence in global economic growth, reducing their appetite for riskier assets.

Market sentiment improved over the weekend after European leaders reaffirmed their support for Ukraine, following a tense meeting between Ukrainian President Zelenskiy and U.S. President Trump. Despite the clash, Zelenskiy expressed hope for continued talks and mentioned the possibility of a U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal.

Ongoing attacks on Russian refineries have heightened concerns about disruptions to Russia’s refined product exports, with reports of a fire at a plant in Ufa.

Analysts are maintaining their oil price forecasts for 2025, with Brent averaging around $74.63 per barrel. They expect any effects from additional U.S. sanctions to be offset by sufficient supply and the potential for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

In Iraq, discussions regarding the resumption of oil exports from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region remain in limbo, as international oil firms have hesitated to restart shipments due to unclear commercial agreements and unpaid past exports.