市場分析

OPEC+ Split on April Oil Production Increase Amid Sanctions, Tariff Concerns

Amos Simanungkalit · 28 Feb37.1K 閱讀

Image Credit: Reuters

OPEC+ is currently debating whether to proceed with its planned oil output increase in April or to freeze production levels due to the complex global supply situation, influenced by new U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, according to eight sources within OPEC+.

Typically, OPEC+ finalizes its supply policy a month in advance, with a decision expected between March 5-7 for April's production. However, no consensus has been reached yet. The United Arab Emirates, looking to utilize its growing output capacity, is in favor of the increase, as is Russia. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia and some other members support postponing the rise in output.

U.S. President Donald Trump has continued to exert pressure on OPEC to lower oil prices, which surged to over $82 per barrel in January after sanctions on Russia were imposed under President Biden. Since then, prices have dropped to $73 due to hopes that Trump's efforts could lead to a peace deal in Ukraine and an increase in Russian oil exports. However, Trump's plans to reduce Iranian oil exports to zero and his recent decision to revoke Chevron's license to operate in Venezuela have kept prices from falling further.

This combination of factors, both bullish and bearish, has complicated the decision-making process for April, according to the sources. Additionally, Trump's potential global tariffs may reduce oil demand and add more uncertainty to the market.

OPEC+ members have been cutting output by 5.85 million barrels per day (bpd), about 5.7% of global supply, in a series of agreements since 2022 to stabilize the market. In December, the group extended these cuts through the first quarter of 2025, further delaying the planned output increase until April. Under the current plan, the UAE is expected to raise its output by 138,000 bpd starting in April.

Some analysts, including Morgan Stanley, predict that OPEC+ may choose to extend the cuts again. RBC Capital Markets' Helima Croft suggests that OPEC+ could delay the increase until the second half of 2025 due to uncertainties surrounding sanctions and tariffs.