市場分析

Wall Street Cheers as Netflix Stock Closes at All-Time High

Amos Simanungkalit · 23 Jan12.5K 閱讀

Image Credit: Reuters

Netflix stock (NFLX) reached a record high on Wednesday, closing nearly 10% higher as Wall Street analysts celebrated its strong fourth-quarter earnings. The stock soared to around $1,000 per share shortly after the market opened, with Pivotal Research raising its price target to $1,250, the highest on Wall Street. Although shares pulled back slightly, they ended the session just under $954.

The streaming giant posted an unprecedented quarterly subscriber increase of 18.9 million, alongside revenue and earnings that exceeded expectations. Analysts like Jefferies' James Heaney called the results "near flawless."

Over the past year, Netflix shares have nearly doubled, consistently hitting new highs as analysts deemed the company a leader in the competitive streaming landscape. Netflix also announced a $15 billion stock buyback and raised its 2025 revenue outlook to $43.5-$44.5 billion, up from the previous $43-$44 billion estimate.

The surge in subscribers was bolstered by high-profile events such as two NFL games, the "Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson" boxing match, and the return of "Squid Game." Netflix confirmed price hikes across its plans: the ad-supported tier increased to $7.99, the standard ad-free tier rose to $17.99, and the premium plan now costs $24.99. Additional member fees also rose to $8.99.

Subscriber growth significantly outpaced Wall Street’s expectations of 9.18 million new users, as Netflix stopped reporting subscriber numbers earlier this year. Analysts like Macquarie’s Tim Nollen suggested the focus now shifts to monetizing the platform through advertising and pricing strategies.

Netflix revealed its ad revenue doubled in 2024 and is expected to double again in 2025, though it’s not projected to become a major revenue driver until 2026.

Live Events Driving Growth

Despite its push into live sports, co-CEO Greg Peters stated that no single event drove the subscriber surge, emphasizing that live events contributed to only a small portion of new customers. Analysts, including Deutsche Bank’s Bryan Kraft, noted this broad growth suggests continued subscriber momentum.

In November, the "Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson" fight drew over 108 million global viewers, becoming the most-streamed sporting event ever. Meanwhile, NFL games averaged 30 million viewers, marking Netflix's most-watched Christmas Day in the U.S. Moving forward, Netflix plans to expand its live events strategy, including WWE Raw and potentially bidding for UFC rights, but will focus on special-event programming rather than regular-season sports.

Financial Highlights

Netflix reported $10.25 billion in revenue for Q4, a 16% year-over-year increase, beating Bloomberg's consensus of $10.11 billion. Q4 diluted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $4.27, above estimates of $4.18 and significantly higher than the $2.11 reported in the prior year. However, its Q1 EPS guidance of $5.58 fell short of the $6.01 consensus.

Operating margins were strong at 22.2% for Q4 and 27% for the full year, with Q1 margins expected to grow further to 28.2%.

In its shareholder letter, Netflix highlighted the challenges of competing with both traditional entertainment and big tech but expressed confidence in its focused strategy and global market fit.