市場分析

Netflix Stock Rises on Record Gains, Boosts Revenue Forecasts and Prices

Amos Simanungkalit · 22 Jan13.5K 閱讀

Image Credit: Reuters

Netflix (NFLX) shares surged over 14% in after-hours trading on Tuesday after the streaming giant announced record-breaking subscriber growth and strong financial results for the fourth quarter. The company added an unprecedented 18.9 million users during the period, significantly surpassing Wall Street’s forecast of 9.18 million. It also reported earnings and revenue that exceeded expectations.

The quarter closed with Netflix’s biggest-ever subscriber gain, fueled by high-profile events such as two NFL games, the "Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson" boxing match, and the return of "Squid Game." These successes prompted Netflix to revise its 2025 revenue projection to a range of $43.5 billion to $44.5 billion, up from its earlier forecast of $43 billion to $44 billion. Additionally, the company announced a $15 billion stock buyback program.

Price increases were also unveiled, with adjustments across various subscription plans in the U.S., Canada, Portugal, and Argentina. The ad-supported plan rose to $7.99 from $6.99, the standard ad-free tier increased to $17.99 from $15.49, and the premium plan climbed by $2 to $24.99. Adding an extra member now costs $8.99, up by $1.

Despite these changes, Co-CEO Greg Peters clarified that the record subscriber growth wasn’t driven by any single event, even as Netflix expands its live sports offerings. The Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson match, which drew over 108 million viewers globally, became the most-streamed sporting event ever. For context, the 2024 Super Bowl attracted 124 million U.S. viewers. Meanwhile, NFL games on Netflix averaged 30 million viewers, making Christmas Day 2024 the streamer’s most-watched in the U.S.

Netflix reiterated in its shareholder letter that its live strategy is focused on special event programming rather than acquiring large regular-season sports packages. Speculation continues that Netflix could bid on UFC rights after recently debuting WWE Raw.

Financially, Netflix delivered Q4 revenue of $10.25 billion, a 16% year-over-year increase, surpassing Bloomberg's estimate of $10.11 billion. The company reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $4.27, beating expectations of $4.18 and well above the $2.11 EPS from the same quarter last year. However, its Q1 2025 EPS guidance of $5.58 fell short of analysts’ $6.01 consensus.

Profitability also improved, with Q4 operating margins reaching 22.2%, ahead of the 22% forecast. Full-year operating margins stood at 27%, with Q1 2025 margins projected to grow to 28.2%, slightly below the anticipated 30%.

Netflix emphasized its focus on innovation and investment in a competitive entertainment landscape, stating in its letter: “Our business remains intensely competitive with formidable players from traditional entertainment and big tech. We’re fortunate to avoid challenges like declining linear networks, allowing us to refine our product/market fit globally.”