EUR/USD: Euro on the Rise Despite Trade Policy Volatility

EUR/USD

Prediction: Bullish

The euro is showing signs of mild recovery in today’s trading session as the market reacts to the uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s trade policy towards Canada and Mexico. The fluctuations in the Dollar Index (DXY) are also influencing the direction of the EUR/USD pair.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Spot Price: EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.03862. U.S. Trade Policy: Trump has announced that he is considering imposing a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, causing market disruptions amid concerns about foreign exchange
interest rates.

Dollar Index (DXY): The DXY index has rebounded, currently trading around 108.65, after a sharp decline earlier in the week. Fed Monetary Policy: The Fed remains cautious on interest rates, with the possibility of rate cuts this year if the U.S. economy shows signs of weakening.

Market Sentiment: Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s policies is increasing demand for safe-haven assets, but the USD is still showing signs of recovery due to expectations of strong economic growth in the U.S.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance:

●1.0410: The nearest resistance level.

●1.0450: A stronger resistance, which could be tested if the upward trend continues.

●1.0500: A significant psychological level, which could act as a strong barrier if the bullish trend extends.

Key Support:

●1.0360 (EMA 34): The nearest support level.

●1.0320 (EMA 89): A stronger support if a correction trend occurs.

●1.0280 (EMA 200): An important support level for the long term.

Technical Indicators:

RSI: Currently at 62.7, indicating that upward momentum is still present but approaching overbought territory.

EMA: The 34, 89, and 200 EMAs are supporting the short-term bullish trend.

DXY: If the DXY continues to rise, EUR/USD could face downward pressure.

Given the current fundamental and technical factors, EUR/USD may continue its upward move if it surpasses key resistance levels. However, investors should closely monitor upcoming economic data, especially announcements from the Fed and U.S. trade policies, to form a suitable trading strategy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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