市場分析

Netflix Q4 Preview: Sports Boost, But Price Hikes Remain a Key Topic

Amos Simanungkalit · 21 Jan13.4K 閱讀

Image Credit: Reuters

Netflix (NFLX) is set to report its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday after the market close, with analysts anticipating strong results. The company is expected to benefit from a solid lineup, including two back-to-back NFL games, the "Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson" boxing match, and the return of "Squid Game." However, Netflix's stock has dipped since the beginning of 2024, despite closing out the previous year at record highs. The pullback reflects broader macroeconomic concerns impacting large tech companies.

Geetha Ranganathan, senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, highlighted the high expectations for Netflix, calling it "the perfect setup" for the company. She noted that Netflix's content slate is particularly strong this quarter, with live sports content playing a key role. The Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson fight became the most-streamed sports event ever, drawing more than 108 million global viewers, while the NFL games averaged around 30 million viewers, marking Netflix's most-watched Christmas Day game in the U.S.

Ranganathan emphasized that sports content, such as the debut of WWE Raw, could fuel subscriber growth and retention, predicting more than 10 million new subscribers for the quarter. This earnings report will be the last to include net subscriber figures, as Netflix announced it would stop reporting that metric in early 2024.

Netflix's efforts over the past year have included expanding its advertising tier, which now boasts 70 million global monthly active users. The stock has surged about 80% year-over-year, hitting multiple all-time highs in 2024, with many analysts considering Netflix the leader in the competitive streaming market.

Despite these successes, Netflix's latest biannual viewership report showed flat year-over-year engagement, which could challenge the company's ability to raise prices and drive growth. The company last raised its Standard plan price in January 2022 and increased its Premium tier in 2023. The ad-supported plan remains one of the cheapest in the streaming market at $6.99 per month.

Ranganathan noted that a price hike in the U.S. market is expected soon, as the current prices are "long overdue." The company recently eliminated its lowest-priced ad-free plan, making the $15.49 Standard plan the most affordable option for those seeking an ad-free experience.

Valuation concerns are also on the horizon, with analysts forecasting a potential downward revision to Netflix’s 2025 revenue outlook, partly due to the strengthening dollar. The company expects revenue growth of 11% to 13% for this year, a slowdown from last year’s 15%. Ranganathan suggested that Netflix might offset this by implementing a significant price increase, which could come at any time this year.