市場分析

Oil Prices Climb, but Gains Restricted by Sanctions Concerns

Amos Simanungkalit · 15 Jan15.6K 閱讀

Image Credit: Reuters

Oil prices rose on Wednesday, recovering some losses from the previous day, as attention shifted back to potential supply disruptions due to sanctions on Russian tankers. However, gains were limited as the market awaited further clarity on the impact of these sanctions.

Brent crude futures increased by 11 cents, or 0.1%, to $80.03 per barrel by 0515 GMT, following a 1.4% drop in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by 23 cents, or 0.3%, to $77.73 per barrel after a 1.6% decline. Prices had fallen on Tuesday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasted that oil prices would face downward pressure over the next two years due to supply outpacing demand.

Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG, noted that the primary factor driving oil prices has been the ongoing Russian oil sanctions, compounded by stronger U.S. economic data. The key uncertainty remains the extent of Russian oil supply loss in the global market and whether alternative measures can fill the gap. Yeap suggested that, in the short term, oil prices may pull back from the sharp gains seen over the past week.

The market also found some support on Wednesday from a decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, as reported by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday. According to ING analysts, oil prices firmed in early Asian trading after API data revealed that U.S. crude inventories fell more than expected in the past week. However, crude stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma—the delivery point for WTI futures—rose by 600,000 barrels, although inventories remained historically low.

The API reported a 2.6 million barrel drop in U.S. crude oil stocks for the week ending January 10, while gasoline inventories increased by 5.4 million barrels and distillate stocks rose by 4.88 million barrels. A Reuters poll showed analysts had expected a 1 million barrel decrease in U.S. crude stockpiles during the same period. Stockpile data from the EIA is expected later at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT).

On Tuesday, the EIA lowered its 2025 global demand forecast to 104.1 million barrels per day, while projecting oil and liquid fuel supply to average 104.4 million bpd. The EIA also predicted that Brent prices would drop by 8% to $74 per barrel in 2025 and decline further to $66 per barrel in 2026. WTI is expected to average $70 per barrel in 2025, then fall to $62 in 2026.