市場分析

GBP/USD Struggles Below Mid-1.2600s with USD Holding Gains

Amos Simanungkalit · 03 Dec 202433.3K 閱讀

The GBP/USD pair remains under pressure during the Asian session on Tuesday, trading just below the mid-1.2600s, though it lacks significant follow-through selling.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) reported a 3.3% decline in sales volumes for the 12 months leading to November, marking the weakest reading since April. This was largely influenced by the timing of Black Friday sales, but it also highlights weakening consumer confidence, which is putting downward pressure on the British Pound (GBP). The slight uptick in the U.S. Dollar (USD) is also acting as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair.

The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, is looking to extend its recovery from a nearly three-week low, driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer. Concerns over U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff plans potentially triggering global trade wars, along with his expansionary policies possibly fueling inflation and limiting the scope for the Fed to ease rates, are adding to the USD’s strength.

Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine war, continue to support the safe-haven U.S. Dollar, further weighing on the GBP/USD pair. However, traders have reduced their expectations for another interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) this year after data last week showed that underlying price growth in the UK accelerated in October. This has helped limit further downside for the currency pair.

Investors are also cautious ahead of key U.S. economic releases, including the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Furthermore, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech is expected to provide insights into the future rate-cut path, influencing demand for the USD. In the short term, Tuesday's JOLTS Job Openings data could offer trading opportunities for the GBP/USD pair.