市場分析

Rising Dollar: Rate Speculations and French Political Tensions in Focus

Amos Simanungkalit · 02 Dec 202443.5K 閱讀

The dollar edged higher on Monday as markets braced for a pivotal week regarding U.S. interest rate prospects, while the yen's recent strength held firm on expectations of rising domestic rates.

Support for the dollar also came from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who warned BRICS nations to abandon plans for an alternative global currency or face 100% tariffs. Political turmoil in France added pressure on the euro, which slipped 0.4% to $1.0532 after a 1.5% recovery last week. The euro remained above its one-year low of $1.0425.

The dollar index rose to 106.170 after a 1.8% gain in November, despite last week's setback. Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics, noted that while the U.S. economy remains resilient amid global headwinds, significant near-term shifts in U.S. rate expectations are unlikely. He anticipates a period of consolidation through year-end but maintains a favorable outlook for the dollar in 2025.

Market focus now turns to the November payrolls report due Friday, with forecasts suggesting a rise of 195,000 jobs, following October's weaker-than-expected data impacted by weather and strikes. Revisions to October’s numbers are also possible, given the survey’s low response rate.

In France, political uncertainty weighed on the euro. Far-right National Rally leaders announced Sunday that budget talks had failed, increasing the likelihood of a no-confidence vote this week that could unseat Prime Minister Michel Barnier. Concerns over an expanding French budget deficit pushed yields to levels matching Greece's, with spreads over German yields reaching their widest point since 2012.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is closely watched as labor and wage data could strengthen the case for further rate hikes. Barclays economist Christian Keller predicts another robust "shunto" wage round in February, reinforcing upward inflationary pressures. The BOJ is expected to raise rates, though the timing—December or January—remains uncertain.

On the European front, the European Central Bank is widely expected to cut rates in December, with markets pricing in a 27% chance of a 50-basis-point reduction at its Dec. 12 meeting.