EUR/USD Analysis: Bearish RSI vs. Potential Upside Recovery

 XAU/USD

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis:

Gold surged to a high of $2,721 as heightened geopolitical tensions drove safe-haven demand. Escalating conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine intensified, with Hezbollah launching heavy rocket attacks on Israel, while Israel conducted large-scale strikes in Beirut. In Ukraine, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin introduced a law forgiving debts for new soldiers and launched a medium-range ballistic missile. The ongoing violence, including Israeli airstrikes killing 29 people and targeting Hezbollah command centers, has spurred investors to flock to gold for security.

Technical Analysis:

Gold’s upward trend is expected to persist, potentially retesting $2,750. Having surpassed the 50-day SMA at $2,663, bullish momentum is strong. Breaking above $2,750 could set the stage for new highs at $2,790 and possibly $2,800, with long-term resistance projected at $3,000. A decline below $2,700 could see prices range between $2,650 and $2,700, while further drops below $2,536 and $2,500 may lead to additional weakness. The bullish RSI supports continued upward momentum.

USD/JPY

Prediction: Decrease

Fundamental Analysis:

The US Dollar Index opened lower on November 25, dropping to 106.80 amidst cooling “Trump Trade” momentum following Donald Trump’s nomination of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. Bessent’s moderate stance has tempered aggressive post-election bets on the dollar, with markets anticipating his focus on economic stability rather than political agendas. Rising US Treasury yields and expectations of slower Fed rate reductions are adding pressure to the yen.

Technical Analysis:

USD/JPY is trading below 154.00, near the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. A drop below 153.00 may push the pair toward the 152.00 range, supported by the 200-day SMA. Immediate resistance lies at 155.00, with potential gains toward 156.00 if broken. However, current technical indicators suggest downside risks dominate.

EUR/USD

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis:

The EUR/USD rebounded from its two-year low of 1.0332, trading near 1.0480, as the US Dollar weakened slightly despite robust US PMI data. The Dollar Index retreated to 107.00 after reaching a high of 108.07, reflecting expectations that the Federal Reserve may slow its rate-cutting cycle.

Technical Analysis:

The EUR/USD remains under pressure after breaking key support at 1.0500, with EMAs indicating a downward trend. The RSI is bearish, suggesting potential further weakness. If 1.0332 fails to hold, support at 1.0300 may be tested. Resistance levels lie at 1.0500 and the November 20 high of 1.0600, offering potential recovery points.

BTC/USD

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis:

Bitcoin briefly surged past $98,000 following President-elect Donald Trump’s announcement of Scott Bessent, a pro-crypto hedge fund manager, as his nominee for Treasury Secretary. Bessent’s pro-blockchain stance signals a shift toward crypto-friendly policies, contrasting with the Biden administration’s stricter regulatory approach. If confirmed, Bessent could introduce clearer regulations and further integrate digital assets into the financial system, boosting market confidence.

Technical Analysis:

Bitcoin’s slight pullback below $96,000 reflects profit-taking as it nears the psychological $100,000 level. Rising moving averages and an overbought RSI indicate bullish momentum. A breakout above $100,000 could propel Bitcoin toward $113,331 and potentially $125,000. On the downside, support at $88,386 (20-day EMA) and $85,000 could provide a cushion. A break below these levels may signal a temporary top.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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