市場分析

Despite a weaker USD, bulls stay on the sidelines as the gold price is rejected near $2,600

Amos Simanungkalit · 18 Nov 2024394.9K 閱讀

Gold prices (XAU/USD) are struggling to build on their modest intraday gains near the $2,600 level but remain in positive territory during the early European session on Monday. Geopolitical tensions and a softer US Dollar (USD) are providing support for the safe-haven metal. However, expectations of a less dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) are limiting further upside for gold.

Market participants remain optimistic that US President-elect Donald Trump's proposed expansionary policies could spur inflation, thereby reducing the likelihood of additional interest rate cuts by the Fed. This is helping to maintain elevated US Treasury bond yields and supporting USD strength, which is preventing gold from seeing significant bullish momentum. As a result, it may be wise to wait for more sustained buying before considering further recovery from last week’s two-month low.

Gold prices are currently under pressure while trading below the $2,620-$2,625 resistance zone.

From a technical standpoint, the recent sharp decline from the all-time high stalled near the 50% retracement level of the June-October rally. The support around the $2,536-$2,535 region aligns with the 100-day Simple Moving Average and is now a critical level. A decisive break below this level would likely trigger further bearish action and could push prices toward the $2,500 psychological support, with the 61.8% Fibonacci level near $2,480 coming into focus.

Conversely, if gold manages to climb above the $2,600 mark (38% Fibonacci level), it may face resistance around the $2,620-$2,622 range. A sustained rally could potentially lead to a short-covering move towards the $2,655-$2,657 zone, or the 50-day SMA, heading towards the $2,672-$2,673 area (23.6% Fibonacci level). A breakout above this level could shift the trend in favor of the bulls, allowing gold to target the $2,700 psychological level.