市場分析

Musk's Political Investment: How Trump's Win Could Shape Tesla

Amos Simanungkalit · 07 Nov 202413.7K 閱讀

Image Credit Reuters

Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk's growing alliance with President-elect Donald Trump is proving beneficial for Tesla shareholders, sparking questions about the long-term implications of their relationship.

Musk, a strong Trump supporter both financially and rhetorically, has made significant contributions, including a $43.6 million donation to the America PAC in October, bringing his total political spending this year to over $132 million. This is one of the largest sums directed toward a political cause. In return, Trump has hinted at offering Musk a position in his administration, potentially leading a commission to enhance government efficiency.

However, the relationship between Trump and Musk hasn’t always been smooth. In 2022, Trump criticized Musk on his social media platform, Truth Social, after Musk suggested that Trump was too old for another presidential run. Musk had also offered Trump a return to Twitter (now X), which had banned him earlier. Musk, a proponent of environmentalism and transitioning away from fossil fuels, has been at odds with Trump, who supports fossil fuel expansion and plans to roll back emissions regulations.

Musk's support of free speech, deregulation, and anti-woke policies has drawn him closer to Trump and the GOP, especially after a personal incident in July, when Musk publicly expressed his full endorsement of Trump following a failed assassination attempt. Since then, the two have been increasingly linked.

For Tesla investors, the key concern is how Trump’s policies could affect the company. Trump has criticized electric vehicles (EVs), calling the shift to EVs a "hoax" and promising to reverse Biden’s pro-EV policies. The Biden administration's Inflation Reduction Act, which offers tax credits for EVs, could be at risk under a Trump administration. While Trump initially voiced skepticism about EVs, he later softened his stance, acknowledging Musk’s influence and support for electric cars.

Despite concerns about policy changes, some analysts believe that Musk’s influence on Trump may help Tesla thrive even without subsidies. Tesla’s competitive advantages in the EV market, particularly its scale, could make it more resilient in a less subsidy-friendly environment. Analysts predict that a Trump victory could boost Tesla’s stock by $40-$50 per share, potentially propelling the company’s market cap over $1 trillion, particularly if autonomous driving technology, including robotaxi developments, is accelerated.

Tesla's efforts in robotaxi technology could benefit from regulatory support under Trump, as analysts expect faster approval for autonomous vehicles. Although Tesla is currently behind competitors in this space, a friendly regulatory environment could give the company a significant edge.

In summary, while Trump’s policies may present challenges to the broader EV market, Tesla's industry leadership and Musk's growing influence in Washington could create new opportunities, particularly with the push for autonomous driving technology.