On election night, Wall Street will be eagerly monitoring US counties

With Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris neck-and-neck in the U.S. presidential race, political analysts are closely watching specific counties nationwide for early signs of who might gain an advantage as polls start closing Tuesday evening.

Below is a list of key counties compiled by Reuters, based on insights from UBS, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, Beacon Policy Advisors in Washington, and the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, particularly Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The following counties are among the most influential in seven critical swing states expected to decide the outcome.

ARIZONA

In Arizona, Maricopa County, with 4.5 million residents—more than half the state’s population—is among the most crucial battlegrounds for both the presidential and Senate races. Beacon notes that Biden was the first Democrat to carry Maricopa since Harry Truman in 1948, and Harris would benefit from a similar performance. Although polls close at 9 p.m. ET, vote counting begins only after all precincts report. Officials caution that it may take up to 13 days to count all ballots, based on local media reports.

FLORIDA

Trump holds a near double-digit lead in Florida, leaving it less competitive, but Miami-Dade County’s early results, expected shortly after polls close at 7 p.m. ET, will still be pivotal. From 2008 through 2016, Democrats held Miami-Dade comfortably, but Biden’s 2020 win was by just seven points, raising concerns for Harris. Beacon analysts suggest a dip in Harris’s support, particularly among Hispanic voters, could indicate broader challenges for her campaign.

GEORGIA

DeKalb and Gwinnett counties in Georgia are bellwethers for Democratic strength. Biden’s large margins in these urban areas helped him narrowly win the state in 2020. Cobb County, where Democrats have gained ground over recent elections, could also show Harris’s appeal to suburban voters, a critical group. Polls close at 7 p.m. ET, and early ballots will begin processing in the morning, meaning Georgia could report results faster than some other states.

MICHIGAN

Saginaw County has consistently backed the winning candidate in Michigan since 2008, making it a significant indicator. Analysts at UBS and Morgan Stanley also highlight Wayne County, encompassing Detroit. Biden won Wayne County by a two-to-one margin in 2020, but any increase in Trump’s support could signal a shift in this swing state. Most polls in Michigan close at 8 p.m. ET, with new policies aimed at speeding up vote counting.

NEVADA

Clark County in Nevada, which includes Las Vegas and over half of the state’s population, is a key area for Democrats to retain in a state Biden won by less than three points in 2020. Republicans are targeting Washoe County, home to Reno, hoping to make gains there. Polls close at 10 p.m. ET, but widespread mail voting may delay full results.

NORTH CAROLINA

Though a Democrat has not won North Carolina since 2008, close polling makes it a swing state in 2024. Analysts will be watching Wake and Mecklenburg counties, where strong Democratic margins are essential for Harris. Sabato’s Crystal Ball also flags Cabarrus County, a suburban area near Charlotte, where Trump’s 2020 margin was narrower than in previous years. Polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET, and early ballots can start being counted at 5 p.m. ET.

PENNSYLVANIA

Pennsylvania was decisive for Biden in 2020, and analysts view it as critical once again. Erie County, a working-class area that flipped between Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020, is seen as a strong indicator. Lackawanna County, which includes Biden’s birthplace Scranton, is another key area; its shift toward Republicans in recent years could be significant for Trump if he maintains support there. Polls close at 8 p.m. ET, though early ballot processing begins the same day, potentially slowing the results.

WISCONSIN

In Wisconsin, Dane County was a Biden stronghold in 2020, with over 75% support. Waukesha County, historically Republican but increasingly competitive, will also be monitored for clues. Polls close at 9 p.m. ET, but early ballots are counted only on Election Day, with some results from Milwaukee likely not available until early the following morning.

These counties are just a sample of the crucial areas that will play a significant role in determining the next President of the United States.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Paraphrasing text from "Reuters" all rights reserved by the original author.