市場分析

As Trump Rises, Bitcoin's Rally Cools: A Closer Look

Amos Simanungkalit · 24 Oct 2024109.2K 閱讀

Image Credits: GETTY IMAGES

Bitcoin's status as a "Trump trade" is beginning to clash with broader movements in global markets influenced by the potential return of the former president to power.

Recently, bond yields and the dollar have surged as Republican nominee Donald Trump has gained an edge over Vice President Kamala Harris in prediction markets. Some investors believe that if Trump wins on November 5, his pro-growth agenda will lead to tighter monetary policy in an already strong US economy. This shift has caused both Bitcoin and stocks to fluctuate, contributing to Bitcoin's first weekly loss in three weeks. Although Trump previously boosted crypto sentiment during his campaign, there are concerns that his broader policy priorities might temper that optimism.

“Definitely, yes, the decline in stocks, rising US dollar, and increasing yields all indicate tighter financial conditions,” said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG Australia Pty. “This is not favorable for crypto at this point. While some might argue that financial conditions were loose to begin with, the speed of the tightening is what’s impactful.”

As of Thursday morning in London, Bitcoin rose about 1% to $67,127, reducing its weekly decline to approximately 2%. The cryptocurrency has seen a significant increase of around 60% this year and reached an all-time high of $73,798 in March, largely due to demand for US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.

Trump has pledged to establish the US as the leading hub for cryptocurrency as he competes for votes against Democratic candidate Harris, who has taken a more cautious stance by advocating for a regulatory framework for the industry. This contrasts with President Joe Biden's more stringent approach to the sector.

Polls indicate that Trump and Harris are nearly tied among likely voters in the seven US swing states, emphasizing how final campaign efforts could determine the outcome of the election.

If Trump wins, it could result in higher yields and a “negative impact on risk assets,” according to Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, a digital-asset derivatives liquidity provider. However, she noted that “the anticipated regulatory easing under a Trump administration for the crypto industry should remain the more significant factor.”