USD/JPY Nears Key Resistance Amid Yen Pressure

Market Overview

Korea

The South Korean won hit an 8-week low at 1,391/USD amid concerns over prolonged U.S. inflation and tax policy pressures, which have triggered capital outflows from emerging markets. Nevertheless, foreign investors remained net buyers, purchasing nearly 27 billion won in equities—indicating that overall investor sentiment is not overly pessimistic.

The KOSPI index fell nearly 1%, weighed down by the sell-off on Wall Street. While Samsung Electronics gained 1.57%, other major stocks such as SK Hynix and LG Energy Solution saw sharp declines. The 10-year government bond yield edged up to 2.884%, reflecting expectations of sustained inflation.

China

The Chinese yuan held steady around 7.18/USD despite a stronger US dollar, supported by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) setting a stronger-than-expected reference rate—the largest deviation since May. This move signals efforts to stabilize the exchange rate amid delayed expectations for US rate cuts due to resurging inflation.

UBS has raised its forecast for China’s 2025 GDP growth to 4.7%, though it continues to warn of risks stemming from a slowing economy and ongoing trade tensions. US-China relations remain complex, particularly concerning rare earths and newly proposed tariff policies.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Fundamental Analysis

Bitcoin hovered around $118,800 after hitting a new all-time high, but bullish momentum has slowed due to profit-taking pressure from short-term investors—with over $3.5 billion in profits withdrawn within just 24 hours. Nevertheless, on-chain indicators from Glassnodeand CryptoQuant suggest the market is not yet overheated, and the uptrend could continue in the second half of the year.
 
Analysts believe Bitcoin still has significant growth potential, with optimistic forecasts projecting BTC could reach $150,000—or even $400,000—by the end of 2025, driven by unprecedented adoption and strong institutional inflows.
 
Technical Analysis

Short-term trend: Bullish, but showing signs of a pullback after reaching a peak around the $123,236 level.
 
Medium-term trend: Sustained uptrend, with key support zones holding firm and a rising price structure (higher highs, higher lows).
 
The RSI has dropped out of the overbought zone (>70) and is currently in a correction phase, with no signs of being oversold yet, the market is “resting,” not reversing.

USDJPY 

Fundamental Analysis

The Japanese yen weakened against most G-10 and Asian currencies as investors grew concerned about the upcoming Upper House election on July 20. Support for the ruling LDP has declined due to rising living costs, while the opposition is proposing a cut in consumption tax—a move that could further strain the country’s fiscal health. USD/JPY rose to 148.42.

The yen remained under pressure following disappointing trade data. Japan’s trade surplus for June came in at just ¥153.1 billion, well below expectations. Exports fell for the second consecutive month, raising fears of a technical recession in Q2.
 
Technical Analysis

USD/JPY has rebounded strongly from the 145.50 – 146.00 zone (Bullish Order Block) and is now approaching the resistance area at 149.726 (Bearish Order Block).The EMA 34, 89, and 200 lines are expanding upward and aligned in the proper sequence for an uptrend.

The RSI had previously entered the overbought zone (above 70) but has since pulled back to around 60  indicating a potential further correction toward the neutral zone (around 50) before resuming its upward movement.

Gold Spot (XAUUSD)

Fundamental Analysis

Gold prices edged lower to around $3,340/oz as the US dollar rebounded after President Trump denied plans to replace Fed Chair Powell, despite continuing to criticize interest rate policy. June's Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat, indicating stable input cost pressures, in contrast to the rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). 

Positive trade developments including tariff negotiations between the EU and the US, the lifting of the US AI chip ban, and a new trade deal with Indonesia—also weighed on gold.
 
However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to support gold prices.

Technical Analysis

Medium-term trend: Sideways within a broad range between the support zone at 3,212 – 3,245 and the resistance zone at 3,380 – 3,440. Current price: Approximately $3,340, positioned between major support and resistance levels, showing signs of consolidation.
 
RSI: Around 50.16, indicating a neutral state.

The RSI is slightly trending downward, with no clear signs of overbought or oversold conditions.

 

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