BTC Breaks $123K; Momentum Slows, Outlook Positive
Market Overview
Cryptocurrency
Bitcoin has set a new all-time high around $123,000, but capital inflows into the crypto market over the past 30 days only reached $51 billion—significantly lower than the $135 billion peak in December 2024. Retail investors continue to buy aggressively, surpassing the monthly supply post-halving, indicating a strong accumulation trend. However, experts warn of potential corrections due to overly optimistic market sentiment.
Solana is also surging, with $125 million in capital inflows—especially from Ethereum—while older meme coins like DOGE, SHIB, BONK, and PEPE are regaining liquidity. Speculation about a potential approval of a Solana ETF is further fueling growth expectations.
United States
The USD index remains above the 98 mark as investors await the June CPI report. Fed Chair Powell stated that inflation may rise due to tax pressures, delaying expectations for interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, Donald Trump continues to criticize the Fed and has threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Russia if no peace deal is reached within 50 days.
Elsewhere, Coinbase is nearing a $100 billion market cap, Trade Desk is being added to the S&P 500, Tesla is considering investing in xAI, and Becton Dickinson is selling its biosciences division to Waters Corp. for $17.5 billion.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)
Fundamental Analysis
Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high of $123,000, but capital inflows into the market remain significantly lower than the 2024 peak. Total crypto market inflows over the past 30 days reached about $51.2 billion—less than half of the $135 billion seen in December 2024. This suggests the current rally is more sustainable and unfolding in stages.Indicators like Realized Cap and SOPR show that money continues to low into Bitcoin, although there are no signs of strong "FOMO" yet. The gap between the spot price and perpetual contracts on Binance is narrowing, indicating that market sentiment is gradually shifting from cautious to optimistic.
Technical Analysis
BTC is currently in a medium-term uptrend, forming a series of higher highs and higher lows from late June to mid-July. The recent phase featured a strong breakout above the $112,000 resistance zone, surging toward $123,236 before undergoing a corrective pullback.
The RSI is now around 49.65, having cooled off from overbought territory (>70), indicating a decrease in bullish momentum.
EURUSD
Fundamental Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is moving sideways around 1.1672 as investors await U.S. CPI data and major corporate earnings results. The USD remains near a three-week high, supported by rising bond yields and expectations that the Fed will delay rate cuts. Former President Trump continues to pressure the Fed and has set a 50-day deadline for Russia to end the conflict in Ukraine, warning of potential trade sanctions.
Meanwhile, the EU has announced plans to impose retaliatory tariffs worth $84 billion if a trade deal with the U.S. is not reached. These geopolitical and macroeconomic tensions continue to drive EUR/USD movements.
Technical Analysis
The price is currently trading below both the 89 EMA and 200 EMA, indicating that selling pressure still dominates.
The RSI is around 41—while not yet in oversold territory, it reflects weakening buying momentum.
There is no significant spike in volume, suggesting the market is in an accumulation phase or waiting for major news.
Gold Spot(XAUUSD)
Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices have inched up to around $3,340/oz as markets await the release of U.S. CPI data later today. The inflation report is seen as a key factor in shaping the Fed’s interest rate policy going forward. If inflation exceeds expectations, the USD may strengthen, putting pressure on gold prices. Conversely, weaker inflation would reinforce expectations of Fed rate cuts, providing support for gold.
On the political front, former President Trump has sent warning letters to 25 countries about new import tariffs set to take effect on August 1st, raising fears of a potential global trade war.
Technical Analysis
Medium-Term Trend: Sideways Within a Wide Range Between Support at $3,212–$3,245 and Resistance at $3,380–$3,440
Current Price: Approximately $3,351.35 — approaching the short-term resistance zone and reacting at a cluster of Bearish Order Blocks.
A sharp increase in volume was observed at the Bullish Order Blocks near the bottom range, confirming the presence of large capital inflows (Smart Money activity).
Stay updated with the latest news at Dupoin & Dupoin Academy
Disclaimer
Derivative investments involve significant risks that may result in the loss of your invested capital. You are advised to carefully read and study the legality of the company, products, and trading rules before deciding to invest your money. Be responsible and accountable in your trading.
RISK WARNING IN TRADING
Transactions via margin involve leverage mechanisms, have high risks, and may not be suitable for all investors. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE OF PROFIT on your investment, so be cautious of those who promise profits in trading. It's recommended not to use funds if you're not ready to incur losses. Before deciding to trade, make sure you understand the risks involved and also consider your experience.
