Euro Up 0.2%, Dollar Slides as Fed Rate Cuts and Tariffs Shape Outlook

Market Overview

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin hit an all-time high near $112,000, driven by strong institutional inflows and rising risk appetite. Crypto-friendly policies from the Trump administration, along with a new economic stimulus package, continue to support the rally. BTC remains firmly above the $107,000 mark, with technical indicators and funding rates maintaining a positive structure.
 
Solana marked a major milestone as the Bullish exchange fully integrated the network, utilizing Solana’s native stablecoin for payments and custody. This move strengthens Solana’s position in traditional finance, contributing to strong growth in both price and trading volume.

Japan

Asian stock markets edged higher, supported by strong gains in Nvidia and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, despite new tariff moves announced by President Trump. The Nikkei 225 slipped 0.56%, while China’s CSI300 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng indexes posted modest gains. The Japanese yen strengthened as a safe-haven asset amid renewed concerns over trade tensions.

Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper and goods from Brazil starting August 1, but markets responded with relative indifference. The U.S. dollar weakened as Treasury yields declined and expectations of Fed rate cuts grew.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Fundamental Analysis

Bitcoin continued its strong rally, setting a new all-time high near $112,000 late Wednesday, driven by rising risk appetite, solid institutional demand, and crypto-friendly policies from the Trump administration. The price peaked at $111,988.90 before trading around $111,259, marking a gain of over 18% year-to-date.

The new U.S. economic stimulus package and rising inflation expectations have reinforced Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against fiat currency risk.
 
Technical Analysis

Short-term trend: Strongly bullish. Price has broken through the 109,818 resistance zone and is approaching the 112,000 mark. EMA 34, 89, 200: Price is trading above all three EMAs, confirming a strong uptrend with solid support from the moving averages.
 
There has been a significant increase in volume during recent bullish candles, confirming a breakout backed by real buying pressure. Volume at previous bottoms also indicates strong accumulation activity.

EURUSD

Fundamental Analysis

The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1747 as the U.S. dollar weakened amid falling Treasury yields and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year. President Trump’s new tariff measures had little market impact, except in Brazil.

Improved risk sentiment supported the euro’s gains. However, Rabobank forecasts that EUR/USD will fall to 1.20 within 12 months, citing weak German economic performance and risks stemming from ECB policy and U.S. tariffs weighing on European exports.
 
Technical Analysis

The primary trend remains bullish as the price stays above the EMA 89 and EMA 200 lines. However, recent price action suggests a sideways consolidation phase is developing.
 
Volume has slightly declined, indicating market participants are in a wait-and-see mode, looking for clearer signals before taking further action.

RSI is currently around 52.08, having recovered from a mildly oversold zone (<40). This suggests selling pressure has eased. The RSI is in neutral territory, signaling a potential accumulation phase before a clearer directional move unfolds.

Gold Spot (XAUUSD)

Fundamental Analysis

Gold prices climbed to around $3,320/oz, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and renewed trade tension concerns after President Trump announced a 50% tariff on goods from Brazil. Ongoing policy uncertainty and safe-haven demand continued to bolster gold.

Minutes from the FOMC meeting revealed divisions within the Fed over the timing of rate cuts, though most members leaned toward easing later this year. Inflation risks stemming from tariffs have made investors more cautious toward risk assets.
 
Technical Analysis

Price is moving within a wide sideways range, bounded by strong support at 3,212–3,245 and resistance at 3,380–3,440.Currently, price is rebounding from the 3,294 support level after a recent drop and is trading around 3,322.  High volume was observed near the 3,212–3,245 support zone, indicating buying interest. However, volume has been declining as price approaches resistance, suggesting a lack of strong momentum for a breakout at this stage.

 

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