ETH Price Forms Foundation for Possible Bullish Surge

Market Overview

Australia

AUD fell for the third consecutive session, dropping below 0.653 USD, as markets are nearly certain the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut interest rates by another 25 basis points on Tuesday—marking the third cut this year—bringing the rate down to 3.6%. This move reflects pressure from cooling inflation and a weakening domestic economy.

Additionally, market sentiment has been affected by global trade concerns after President Trump confirmed that a new round of tariffs will take effect on August 1 if agreements are not reached. Nevertheless, expectations of a recovery in China’s economy continue to provide medium-term support for the AUD.

Japan

Japanese stocks edged lower amid growing concerns over unclear U.S. tariff policies. President Trump announced he would impose higher tariffs on August 1 if trade deals are not reached by July 9 with partners including Japan, raising regional uncertainty.
 
At the same time, oil prices dropped sharply as OPEC+ unexpectedly increased output, putting pressure on higher-cost producers like the U.S. The U.S. dollar continued to weaken, nearing a four-year low, while investors closely watch the upcoming Japanese upper house elections.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Fundamental Analysis

BTC is trading slightly higher around the $100,000 mark, despite continuous institutional buying. However, total demand has dropped by nearly 900,000 BTC over the past 30 days, limiting upward momentum.ETFs and corporations are purchasing significantly less compared to late 2024, which isn’t enough to push prices to new highs.

The market has noted a notable $8.6 billion BTC whale transaction with no signs of selling, and the UAE’s Golden Visa program via TON has drawn attention. Still, the market lacks strong catalysts for a decisive BTC breakout.
 
Technical Analysis

The price is currently in a recovery uptrend after a strong previous decline. It is now trading around the resistance zone at $109,818.
 
Volume is gradually increasing during the rebound, but hasn’t surged yet, indicating that capital is returning to the market, though still with caution.
 
The most recent candlestick is a small red one following a series of bullish candles, signaling hesitation around the $109,800 resistance area.

Ethereum(ETHUSD)

Fundamental Analysis
 
The Ethereum market is drawing attention with numerous optimistic forecasts from analysts. Some experts believe ETH is on the verge of entering a strong bullish cycle, supported by a long-term accumulation pattern, the emergence of an inverse Head and Shoulders formation, and increasing ETF-related capital inflows.
 
The regulatory environment is gradually becoming more favorable for crypto, with positive signals from the Web3 space and growing interest from institutional investors. However, trading volume remains low, indicating the market is still waiting for a clearer catalyst to trigger a breakout.
 
Technical Analysis

ETH is currently in a sideways accumulation phase following a sharp previous decline, fluctuating around the $2,520 – $2,580 range.The current price structure suggests it may be forming a base for a potential recovery.

The RSI is around 57, not yet in the overbought zone, indicating that the upward momentum could continue.Volume is holding at an average level, with no signs of major distribution.

Gold Spot (XAUUSD)

Fundamental Analysis

Gold prices fell by 0.36% to around $3,310/oz at the start of the week, as investors assessed recent developments in global trade negotiations. Positive signals from the talks and the potential extension tariff deadlines weakened the safe-haven demand for gold.
 
However, the decline was limited as President Trump continued to warn of additional tariffs on countries that fail to reach a deal before the deadline, while also signing a major economic bill on July 4th. Strong U.S. employment data and expectations that the Fed will maintain interest rates also influenced gold prices.
 
Technical Analysis

The price is currently in a short-term corrective downtrend following the early July rebound. The current structure shows that it failed to hold the support zone around $3,336–$3,340 and is now pulling back to retest the 200 EMA + Bullish Order Block at $3,294.

There was a slight increase in volume near the $3,294 bottom area, indicating some buying absorption. However, the declining volume during the previous rebound suggests a lack of strong upward momentum.

RSI is no longer in sync with the price, signaling a warning of continued corrective downside.

 

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