Nikkei Rises 0.2% on Chip Stock Gains, Eyes on BoJ
Market Overview
Australia
The AUD held steady around 0.6487 as the Israel–Iran conflict has yet to escalate into U.S. involvement, slightly improving risk sentiment. However, geopolitical uncertainty continues to weigh on markets. Australia’s jobs data had little impact on expectations that the RBA will cut rates in July, with odds at 75%.
In New Zealand, the economy is showing a mild recovery, but business investment remains weak. The RBNZ is likely to hold rates steady in July, with potential cuts in the following months. The NZD is hovering around 0.6000 after a sharp drop from its 0.6088 peak.
Europe
European stock markets fell for the third consecutive week amid fears of potential U.S. involvement in the Middle East, boosting demand for safe havens like the USD and oil. The STOXX 600 dropped nearly 2.5% on the week. Brent crude rose for the third straight week, adding inflationary pressure and complicating central bank policy decisions.
On the monetary front, the SNB unexpectedly cut rates to 0%, the BoE held rates steady but signaled readiness to ease, and Norges Bank surprised markets with a 25 bps rate cut. The euro remained relatively stable around $1.15.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)
Fundamental Analysis
Analysts remain optimistic. According to Titan of Crypto, the current bull cycle is only in its 29th month, with about five more months of potential gains ahead and a target of $137,000.
Semler Scientific announced plans to acquire up to 105,000 BTC by 2027, reflecting an accelerating wave of institutional Bitcoin accumulation.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin is forming a potential bottom around $103,500 after a pullback from the $112,000 peak. A break above $106,150 could trigger a rebound toward the $108,800 zone.
On the H1 chart, RSI has recovered slightly above 50, indicating selling pressure has temporarily eased. However, a drop below $103,500 could open the way for a decline toward $101,200 or lower.
USDJPY
Fundamental Analysis
The Nikkei edged up 0.2% to 38,577 points, supported by gains in chip stocks like Kioxia (+5.6%) and Advantest (+2.2%), while real estate and heavy industry sectors declined. However, the rally was capped by concerns over escalating Israel–Iran tensions,weighing on investor sentiment.
On the macro front, Japan’s core inflation in May hit a two-year high, increasing pressure on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to consider rate hikes. Still, markets currently price in only a 50% chance of BoJ action before December. The USD/JPY pair remains steady around 145.2.
Technical Analysis
USD/JPY is in a short-term uptrend, marked by higher lows and a breakout above the 145.00 – 145.50 resistance zone. However, the upward momentum is stalling near the recent peak.
Trading Volume: Volume picked up slightly as price broke above 145.00, confirming buying pressure behind the breakout. However, the latest red candle with high volume signals a potential short-term pullback or consolidation ahead.
Gold Spot (XAUUSD)
Fundamental Analysis
Gold fell below $3,360/oz, heading for its first weekly pullback after three consecutive weeks of gains, as investors sold off to cover losses in other markets. Middle East tensions escalated as Israel struck key targets in Tehran following an Iranian missile hitting a major Israeli hospital.
On the monetary front, the Fed held rates steady and projected two cuts this year. However, Chair Powell warned that inflation remains persistent due to tariff impacts, potentially limiting the scope for easing — putting pressure on non-yielding assets like gold.
Technical Analysis
After hitting strong resistance around $3,440, gold has formed a lower high and is now trading below both the EMA 34 and EMA 89 — signaling short-term weakness.The price structure has shifted from a Higher High – Higher Low pattern to a short-term sideways-to-down trend.
Volume has slightly declined in the current range, indicating that while selling pressure isn’t aggressive, there’s also no strong buying interest to trigger a reversal.
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