Bitcoin Bounces Back to $103K Amid Stablecoin Outflows

Market Overview

United States

The U.S. dollar came under pressure as the May ISM manufacturing index fell to 48.6, signaling weakness in the industrial sector. HSBC warned the greenback is vulnerable to weak data, especially ahead of Friday’s jobs report and Wednesday’s ISM services index.

Additionally, rising trade and geopolitical tensions added stress. President Trump announced a doubling of steel tariffs to 50% and accused China of violating trade agreements. The escalating Russia–Ukraine conflict is also driving investors toward gold as a safe haven. 

Cryptocurrency

The crypto market shows signs of reversal as Bitcoin drops from its $111,814 peak to around $103,000. Over $1 billion in stablecoins has flowed out of Binance, while long-term holders (LTH) have sharply reduced accumulation. Large wallets are taking profits, while retail investors continue buying—creating a clear sentiment divergence.

New data from CryptoQuant reveals the buy/sell ratio on Binance has fallen below 1.0, indicating selling pressure dominates. Although BTC outflows from exchanges continue, analysts warn of a deeper correction ahead unless institutional capital returns to support prices.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Fundamental Analysis

Bitcoin is pulling back to the $103,000 zone after hitting a peak of $111,814, amid on-chain data showing over $1 billion in stablecoin outflows from Binance and large wallets starting to sell. Long-term holders (LTH) have stopped accumulating, while retail investors continue to FOMO—creating a clear sentiment divergence.

However, some indicators still support a bullish outlook, such as continued BTC outflows from Coinbase and a low NRPL level. Strategy also announced the sale of 2.5 million STRD preferred shares to raise funds for more Bitcoin purchases, bringing its holdings to 580,955 BTC.

Technical Analysis

Currently, Bitcoin is rebounding from the support area around $102,374–$104,000 after a drop from the $109,356 top. The price has just reclaimed the former supply zone (~$105,300), signaling short-term strength. The short-term bias is leaning toward recovery or mild upside if this zone holds. 

Trading volume is rising during the recent rebound, supporting the potential for continued upward momentum.

EURUSD

Fundamental Analysis

Standard Chartered forecasts EUR/USD to hover around 1.14, supported by stable ECB outlook and improving German business sentiment. The ECB is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points next week and then pause for the rest of the year, while Berlin may introduce additional fiscal stimulus.

However, short-term capital flows back into U.S. assets and concerns over U.S.–China trade policy could limit the euro’s upside. The USD remains weak due to disappointing U.S. economic data and escalating tariff tensions with China.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD is in a short-term uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows. The current price of 1.14277 is trading above all three EMAs (34, 89, 200), confirming bullish momentum.RSI is at 58.76—still below overbought territory, leaving room for further upside. The rising RSI trend aligns with price strength.

Trading volume has surged during recent breakouts above the 1.127 zone, indicating strong buying interest. High-volume candles are concentrated in bullish zones, reinforcing buyer dominance.

Gold Spot (XAUUSD)

Fundamental Analysis

Gold surged to $3,370/oz—its highest level in over three weeks—driven by rising safe-haven demand amid escalating trade and geopolitical tensions. President Trump’s announcement to double steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% raised fears of a renewed U.S.–China trade war. China responded strongly, while the EU threatened retaliation.

The U.S. dollar weakened, and Russia–Ukraine tensions intensified following a series of drone strikes. Investors are shifting into gold as risk-off sentiment dominates ahead of key U.S. economic data and the upcoming ECB meeting.

Technical Analysis

Price has broken above strong resistance around $3,380, closing above the April 23rd gap zone—confirming a bullish breakout.

A new structure of higher highs and higher lows is forming from the $3,212 bottom, signaling an emerging uptrend. Trading volume has increased moderately during the breakout from $3,340–$3,380, validating real buying pressure. However, sustained volume is needed to support a firm breakout above $3,400.

 

 

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