EUR/USD Set for Weekly Gain, but Faces Resistance Ahead

Market Overview

United Kingdom

The British pound (GBP) is holding steady near a three-year high at $1.3468 after higher-than-expected inflation dampened market expectations for interest rate cuts from the Bank of England (BoE). While GBP/USD remains in a tight range and has yet to break above its April high, buying interest remains solid around short-term technical support, suggesting market sentiment favors 
maintaining current price levels.

On the macro front, the UK economy has seen no major new data releases, but it is indirectly benefiting from weakness in the Eurozone following a string of disappointing PMI reports, which have pushed EUR/GBP lower. The pound is also supported as the U.S. dollar sees a mild recovery, although it continues to face longer-term downward pressure.

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin has surged past $111,000, setting a new all-time high driven by strong institutional inflows, positive market sentiment, and growing expectations for clearer regulatory policies. However, on-chain data indicates that new whale investors are taking short-term profits, while long-term whales continue to hold—signaling strong confidence in the medium-term uptrend. Technically, a "Golden Cross" pattern has formed, though many analysts warn it is a lagging indicator.

On the regulatory front, Michigan has introduced four crypto-related bills, covering retirement fund investments, Bitcoin mining protection, and opposition to a U.S. CBDC. Meanwhile, the Cetus exchange on the Sui blockchain is suspected to have suffered an exploit, with potential losses reaching $200 million.

Gold Spot (XAUUSD)

Fundamental Analysis

Spot gold rose slightly to near $3,300/oz during the Asian session, supported by ongoing concerns over the U.S. budget deficit after the House passed Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” on spending and tax cuts. Defensive sentiment continues to support gold demand, especially amid stalled trade talks and projected increases in U.S. debt.

However, gains are capped by a stronger USD, buoyed by solid U.S. economic data. Comex gold futures fell 0.51% to $3,292.30, and gold remains 3.49% below its all-time high of $3,411.40 set on May 6.

Technical Analysis

Gold previously surged from the $3,212 level but is now undergoing a mild pullback near the old resistance at $3,311. The current structure still suggests an overall uptrend, but the market is likely in a pause phase for re-accumulation or a retest of support.

The RSI is at 55.70, having exited the overbought zone and trending lower indicating weakening buying momentum. While there's no clear reversal signal yet, a break below RSI 50 would warrant closer monitoring. Volume spiked when price hit $3,311 but lacked sufficient strength to push through suggesting technical selling pressure is emerging.

EURUSD

Fundamental Analysis

EUR/USD rose to $1.1303, eyeing a 1.2% weekly gain, as U.S. fiscal concerns prompted investors to exit USD-denominated assets. Trump’s multi-trillion-dollar tax cut plan, combined with over $36 trillion in public debt and a credit rating downgrade by Moody’s, is fueling a “Sell America” trend.

Despite 30-year U.S. bond yields staying above 5%, the dollar continues to weaken due to widespread aversion to U.S. assets. Meanwhile, weak data from the Eurozone has not stopped the EUR from rebounding, driven by safe-haven flows returning to Europe.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD is showing signs of recovery after a sharp correction earlier this month. The price just bounced off a confluence of EMA support and an old demand zone. However, it's now approaching a short-term supply zone, which may trigger profit-taking.

The RSI is at 58.96, still in positive territory with no clear signs of overbought or bearish divergence suggesting the pair could continue rising if resistance is broken.

Volume has increased slightly during the recent rebound but lacks a decisive breakout the market appears to be awaiting confirmation of a resistance breakout.

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Fundamental Analysis

Bitcoin hit a new high near $112,000 before a slight pullback to around $111,500. Institutional inflows remain strong thanks to robust infrastructure and growing expectations of clearer regulations. However, newer whales are taking short-term profits, while long-term holders continue to maintain their positions—indicating sustained medium-term optimism.

On the policy front, Michigan has proposed four crypto-related bills involving retirement fund investments, Bitcoin mining at abandoned oil sites, and opposition to CBDCs. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate is reviewing a bill aimed at limiting the benefits of stablecoins under President Trump’s proposal. The Cetus exchange on Sui has suffered a major hack, with losses exceeding $200 million.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin has broken through key resistance at $109,356, establishing a new price range around $111,500. The current trend is strongly bullish, supported by high volume, EMA alignment, and clear market momentum.

The RSI stands at 70.37, indicating overbought conditions and raising the possibility of a short-term technical correction. However, if RSI remains above 60 without a sharp drop, the bullish momentum is likely to persist.Volume surged during the breakout above $109,000,confirming active buying and large capital inflows.

 

 

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