Bitcoin Maintains Bullish Structure, Eyes New Highs

Market Overview

European 

The European economy is gradually recovering after a period of slow growth, with the Eurozone GDP rising by 0.3% in Q1 2025, in line with market expectations. This is a positive signal, indicating that the region is moving away from recession risks. However, core inflation remains around 2.7%, above the ECB’s 2% target, prompting the central bank to maintain a cautious stance on monetary policy. Some ECB  members have stated that interest rate cuts must be carefully considered to avoid reigniting inflationary pressures.

The euro stays resilient, backed by economic stabilization and policy divergence with the Fed. Yet, weak demand from China and global trade tensions pose risks to exports. Investors are watching upcoming data to gauge the ECB’s next moves.

Cryptocurrency

The crypto market remains active as Bitcoin (BTC) approaches the $104,000 mark, despite weak retail investor interest—evident from declining Google searches and app rankings. Historically, retail inflows tend to surge after BTC breaks its all-time high, with the next key resistance level at $109,350. Institutional players like Tether and MicroStrategy continue accumulating, reflecting long-term confidence in the market.

XRP has surged 22% over the past week, driven by rising futures open interest and growing institutional demand. Expectations of an XRP ETF further support the bullish trend. However, profit-taking pressure is mounting as the stablecoin ratio on exchanges hits 5.3%, signaling a potential short-term correction. Investors should closely monitor market sentiment.

XAU/USD

Prediction: Decrease

Gold is in a downward correction trend after reaching a peak of $3,411.40 on May 6, 2025. With prices closing lower in 4 out of the last 6 sessions and now breaking through strong support levels, the short-term trend has turned bearish. The price is currently fluctuating around $3,140, near a 5-week low. The trend structure is still under clear selling pressure, and investors need to monitor reactions at support levels to determine if this is a temporary bottom or if prices will continue to fall further.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Monetary Policy and U.S. Economic Data

U.S. inflation was weaker than expected last week, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the near future – a positive factor for gold.

May gold futures on Comex fell by 1.82% to $3,181.40 – the lowest close since April 10, 2025. However, year-to-date, gold is still up by 21%.

Geopolitics and Market Sentiment

Global tensions ease: The U.S. and China reached an agreement to reduce tariffs and halt confrontations for 90 days, while tensions between India and Pakistan and in the Middle East are also showing signs of stabilizing.

President Trump announced plans to lift sanctions on Syria, reducing the need for risk hedging – a negative factor for gold.

However, the reduction of speculative positions by investors is also putting downward pressure on gold prices in the short term.

Upcoming Economic Data

The market is awaiting U.S. PPI and retail sales reports, which could directly affect expectations for Fed monetary policy. If the data is weak, expectations for rate cuts will increase, which would support gold prices.

 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels

• $3,212.249: The nearest resistance, coinciding with the EMA 200 level that was recently breached.
• $3,298.400: A stronger resistance zone – where prices have been rejected multiple times.
• $3,380.692 – $3,440.000: A supply zone with a price gap that needs to be monitored if prices recover deeply.

Key Support Levels

• $3,167.704: The current support zone, being tested.
• $3,125.243: A key support level – if breached, it opens up the possibility for a move toward $3,057.410.
• $2,980.703: A deep support zone – approaching the psychological $3,000/oz level.

Technical Indicators:

RSI: At 25.37 – in the oversold region, indicating a potential short-term rebound.

EMA: Price is below the EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200 on the H4 chart – confirming that the bearish trend is dominant.

Trading Volume: Slightly higher during the down sessions, indicating that selling pressure, especially from speculative positions, remains strong.

 

 

EUR/USD

Prediction: Decrease 

EUR/USD is currently in a short-term sideways state, fluctuating around the 1.1200 level after being rejected at the MA200 (1.1249). The market lacks clear momentum and is waiting for key data from the U.S., such as Retail Sales and a speech from Fed Chairman Powell at the end of the New York session. The overall sentiment has turned cautious after the previous strong uptrend stalled due to the lack of supporting factors.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS 

U.S. Economic Data and Monetary Policy Expectations

The U.S. April CPI index released yesterday increased by 0.3% m/m, lower than the expected

0.4%, reinforcing the likelihood that the Fed will not raise interest rates further this year.

U.S. retail sales data will be released today (May 15). The market expects a growth of 0.4% m/m. If the data is lower, it could further pressure the USD downward.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak after the retail sales data. Investors are waiting for a "dovish" signal as inflation slows and growth shows signs of weakening.

Bond Yields and Financial Market Movements

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has decreased to around 4.39% from a high of nearly 4.50% earlier this month. This reflects rising expectations for rate cuts.

U.S. stocks have recovered slightly, especially in the technology and consumer sectors, due to expectations that the Fed will maintain a "dovish" stance.

Developments in Europe

Eurozone Q1 GDP was reported at a 0.3% q/q increase, close to expectations, showing signs of stabilization in the region's economy.

Inflation in the Eurozone is gradually decreasing but still above the ECB's 2% target. This suggests the ECB may continue to keep interest rates high for an extended period.

China’s Actions and Indirect Impact

China reported weaker-than-expected credit data, raising concerns about global demand, which negatively impacts the EUR since the EU is a major trade partner of China.

However, China’s potential to increase economic stimulus in the near future creates expectations for a global trade recovery, which supports the overall market sentiment.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels

• 1.1275: The nearest resistance, coinciding with the "Bear OB" region and EMA 89 – crucial. If broken, the price could target 1.1388.
• 1.1388 – 1.1488: A strong medium-term resistance zone, which was previously rejected multiple times.
• 1.1569 – 1.1579: A long-term strong resistance, which could be seen as the profit-taking zone for buyers if the price spikes.

Key Support Levels

• 1.1075: The nearest support, where a bottom was formed and buying pressure emerged.
• 1.0946: The next support, which is a previous bottom before the increase in early April.

Technical Indicators:

RSI (14): Currently at 48.55, indicating the market is in a neutral zone, with no overbought or oversold signals. Previously, RSI dropped to the oversold region and recovered, reflecting the emergence of buying pressure at the bottom.

Trading Volume: Increased significantly when the price rebounded from 1.1075, indicating the presence of buying power. However, if the volume does not sustain, the rebound may only be short-term.

BTC/USD

Prediction: Increase

BTC/USD is currently in a medium-term uptrend with many positive signals from both technical and fundamental perspectives. Bitcoin has broken through the strong resistance zone around $97,766 and is now testing the next resistance level near $105,000 - $105,700. The uptrend is supported by the EMA 34, 89, and 200 all being below the price, and the RSI remains neutral, indicating that buying pressure is still present.

However, in the short term, the price is undergoing a slight correction after the strong rally, with some localized downward pressure below $103,500, but there are no signs of a reversal in the main trend.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Return of Retail Investors:

On-chain data shows that the number of retail investors (wallets holding under $10,000 BTC) has increased by 3.4% in the past 30 days, signaling a recovery in confidence towards Bitcoin. This is a positive sign as this group tends to react quickly to market developments and can create a crowd effect, driving further buying momentum.

Institutions and Corporations Continue to Buy:

Companies like Semler Scientific are ramping up Bitcoin accumulation, along with large investment funds such as Tether and Michael Saylor's Strategy, which have recently purchased tens of thousands of BTC. This strengthens the long-term bullish momentum.

Risk Warning from Stablecoin Ratio on Exchanges:

The stablecoin ratio on exchanges has recently risen to 5.3, a high level that signals potential selling pressure in the short term. Previous strong increases in this ratio have led to significant price corrections.

Political and Regulatory Factors:

Ongoing investigations into crypto projects related to U.S. political figures may cause volatility in either direction. However, there has yet to be any direct impact on Bitcoin’s price.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 

Key Resistance Levels

• $105,706: The most recent peak – breaking this could lead to targeting the all-time high (ATH) around $109,356 (from January 20, 2025).
• $109,356: The highest historical peak.

Key Support Levels

• $102,374: The nearest support, where the price is currently being supported.
• $97,766: A strong support zone that was previously resistance, now turned support after being breached (breakout).
• $95,000: Coincides with the EMA 200 – an important dynamic support.
• $92,095: A deeper support zone if the market experiences a strong decline.

Technical Indicators:

EMA 34, 89, 200: The price is still above all three EMAs, especially EMA 200, confirming the medium and long-term bullish trend. However, the price is currently testing EMA 34 (102,777), and if this level is lost, a retest of EMA 89 or deeper levels could occur.

RSI: The current RSI is around 53.14, having exited the overbought zone. RSI is declining, indicating that buying pressure is weakening – signaling a potential light correction or sideways consolidation.

Trading Volume: The strong upward movement (May 8-9) was accompanied by high trading volume, confirming the buying momentum. Currently, trading volume is showing signs of decline, indicating that the market is waiting for new news to determine the next direction.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer

Derivative investments involve significant risks that may result in the loss of your invested capital. You are advised to carefully read and study the legality of the company, products, and trading rules before deciding to invest your money. Be responsible and accountable in your trading.

 

RISK WARNING IN TRADING

Transactions via margin involve leverage mechanisms, have high risks, and may not be suitable for all investors. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE OF PROFIT on your investment, so be cautious of those who promise profits in trading. It's recommended not to use funds if you're not ready to incur losses. Before deciding to trade, make sure you understand the risks involved and also consider your experience.