XAU/USD Bulls Eye New Highs as Fed Stays Cautious on Rate Cuts

Market Overview

Australia

The Australian dollar is under pressure due to unfavorable economic and political factors. The Fed's delay in cutting interest rates has strengthened the USD, weakening risk-sensitive currencies like the AUD. Concerns about escalating trade tensions under former President Trump's tariff policies have also fueled market risk aversion.

Australia's weak employment report further weighed on the AUD, raising expectations that the RBA may keep its accommodative policy longer. Meanwhile, strong New Zealand GDP data boosted the NZD against the AUD, driving the AUDNZD lower. Australia's economic outlook remains pressured by both domestic challenges and global uncertainties.

Europe

The euro is facing downward pressure mainly due to the USD's recovery, supported by the Fed's firm stance on interest rates. The Fed's decision to keep rates steady and signal no rush to cut rates has boosted demand for the USD as a safe-haven asset, especially amid growing concerns over trade tensions sparked by former President Donald Trump's unpredictable tariff policies.

In addition, fears about the global economic outlook have led investors to avoid riskier assets, adding further pressure on the euro. The short-term outlook for EURUSD will largely depend on the developments in U.S.-China trade tensions and policy actions from the European Central Bank (ECB).

XAU/USD 
 
Prediction: Bullish
 
Gold prices continue to maintain a strong uptrend, with a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. Currently, gold is trading around $3,035 per ounce, slightly lower than the recent high of $3,057 per ounce, but the uptrend remains intact. 

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS 

Monetary Policy and Fed Impact: 

The Fed has just decided to keep interest rates steady within the 4.25% - 4.50% range. However, projections suggest two rate cuts may occur this year, which supports gold prices, as a lower interest rate environment typically increases the appeal of precious metals.

Although the USD rose following the Fed's decision, gold prices maintained their upward momentum due to safe-haven demand. 

Inflation and Market Drivers: 

Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—especially after Israel resumed airstrikes in Gaza—continue to drive strong demand for gold. 

New tax policies from the Trump administration have sparked concerns over rising inflation, adding upward pressure on gold prices.  The U.S. economy is now forecast to slow to 1.7% growth (down from a previous estimate of 
2.1%), significantly boosting demand for safe-haven assets like gold. 

Market Sentiment and Global Risk: 

Ongoing uncertainty from U.S. trade policies and geopolitical tensions are pushing capital flows into gold. 

Gold has recorded eight consecutive sessions of gains, marking the longest rally since March 2024, with a total increase of approximately 5% during this period. 

Safe-haven capital is shifting from riskier assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies into gold, further reinforcing the strong bullish trend. 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 

Key Resistance Levels 

●   $3,057.590 – All-time high and strong resistance level. A breakout above this could push prices towards $3,075 or even higher.  $3,050.000 – Important psychological resistance. 

Key Support Levels 

●    $3,018.414 – Closest support level, near the 34 EMA. Holding above this level supports continued upward momentum. 

●    $3,000.000 – Key psychological support. 

●    $2,982.766 and $2,956.505 – Deeper support zones that may offer good opportunities to enter long positions safely. 

Technical Indicators: 

The RSI is currently at 58.83, indicating a neutral stance but still leaning bullish. Previously, RSI approached the 70 level (overbought), and is now undergoing a mild correction, suggesting temporary pullback pressure but no clear sign of a major reversal. 
Trading volume remains high, showing strong interest from investors. 

Gold is currently in a short-term correction phase but retains its overall bullish structure. Traders should closely watch key support zones like $3,018 and $3,000 for potential buy opportunities aligned with the main trend. A breakout above $3,050 could pave the way toward new highs at $3,075 or beyond. 

SPX – S&P 500 Index 
 
Prediction: Bearish with signs of recovery 

The S&P 500 Index remains in a downtrend from its peak at 6,144.15 (a drop of -7.83%), but there are emerging signs of recovery. Currently, the price is testing a key resistance zone at 5,713 (EMA 200). If it breaks above this level, a bullish reversal could be confirmed. If it fails, the downward trend may resume toward lower support zones. 

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS 

Monetary Policy and Fed Impact: 

The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in its latest meeting but signaled two potential rate cuts in 2025, raising expectations of support for the stock market. 

Chairman Powell emphasized that inflation from tariffs is likely temporary, but concerns about stagflation (high inflation + low growth) remain. 

The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.24%, easing pressure on equities. 

Former President Trump continues to pressure the Fed to lower rates, warning that tariff effects could weaken the economy. 

Inflation and Market Drivers: 

The latest unemployment data indicates a stable labor market, but downward revisions in economic growth forecasts have raised recession concerns. 

Notable stock declines include Accenture (-7.3%) and Microchip Technology (-6.5%), hit by the Trump administration’s public spending cuts. 
WTI crude oil rose 2% to $68.27/barrel, reflecting expectations of stable consumption demand. 

Geopolitical and Market Sentiment: 

The Trump administration continues implementing government spending cuts, negatively impacting many companies with federal contracts. 
The UK government is pushing major administrative reforms, sparking mixed reactions in global markets. 

The S&P 500 remains under bearish pressure but is attempting a rebound from recent lows. 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 

Key Resistance Levels 

5,713.26 (EMA 200) – A strong resistance level. A breakout could confirm a recovery trend. 

●    5,866.43 – Next resistance level if recovery continues. 

●    6,004.02 - 6,057.22 – Stronger resistance zone from the previous downtrend. 

Key Support Levels 

●    5,622.44 – Closest support. A breakdown could trigger a return to the downtrend. 

●    5,502.42 – Key short-term support. 

●    5,402.62 - 5,330.16 – Major support area, where significant buying interest may emerge. Technical Indicators: 

RSI = 41.31 – Still in a weak zone, but showing recovery signs. A move above 50 may confirm a short-term bullish trend. 

Trading volume – Needs closer observation. A high-volume breakout at 5,713 could signal a strong bullish reversal. 

The S&P 500 is testing major resistance at 5,713 (EMA 200). Price action at this level will be crucial in determining the next move. A breakout could confirm a recovery after a prolonged decline, while failure may lead to a continuation of the drop toward 5,622 – 5,502.

Investors should closely monitor upcoming Fed commentary, economic data, and market sentiment next week to adjust their trading strategies accordingly. 

USOIL – WTI Crude Oil 
 
Prediction: Short-term recovery within a long-term downtrend 

WTI crude oil (USOIL) has rebounded significantly from a key support area, marking its strongest weekly gain since January 2025. However, the primary trend remains bearish, as the pattern of lower highs and lower lows continues to take shape. 

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS 

Monetary Policy and Fed Impact: 

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged this week, signaling caution about the economic outlook. 

Stability in Fed policy helped the USD strengthen, which in turn pressured oil prices. 

Geopolitical Tensions and Supply Risk: 

Escalating tensions in the Middle East are pushing oil prices higher. 

Israel launched a ground campaign in Gaza, while the U.S. conducted airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen, raising fears of supply disruptions in this oil-rich region. 

New U.S. sanctions on Iran, specifically targeting an independent Chinese refinery, are expected to cut Iran’s oil exports by up to 1 million barrels per day. 

OPEC+ and Output Reduction Plans: 

OPEC+ recently announced plans to cut production by 189,000 - 435,000 barrels/day, extending through June 2026, to compensate for overproduction beyond previous commitments. 

Despite expected output increases from Kazakhstan, Iraq, and Russia next year, these cuts aim to balance the market and limit oversupply. 

Market Sentiment and Tariff Impact: 

Market concerns are growing over “tit-for-tat” tariffs planned by the Trump administration on April 2, which could pressure global economic growth. 

Asian equities declined amid fears of negative effects from the new sanctions and tariff measures. 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 

Key Resistance Levels 

●    $70.45 – Nearest resistance level, aligned with the 89 EMA. 

●    $72.55 – Strong resistance zone, aligned with the 200 EMA and a previous local high.
 
$80.73 – The recent peak during the last recovery phase; a tough resistance if prices continue to climb. 

Key Support Levels 

●    $67.25 – Immediate support level; holding above this may fuel continued recovery. 

●    $65.35 – $65.25 – Strong support zone, marking the recent swing low. 

Technical Indicators: 

EMA 89 is acting as the short-term resistance. The 200 EMA remains above the current price, confirming that the overall bearish trend dominates. 

RSI is at 48.33, recovering from oversold conditions (below 30) and approaching the neutral zone, indicating potential for short-term rebound. 

WTI crude oil is in a recovery phase, but remains under pressure from monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and global supply-demand dynamics. Investors should closely monitor: 

●    Developments in the Middle East conflict 

●    Tariff implementation by the U.S. on April 2 

●    Updates on Iran’s oil exports 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer

Derivative investments involve significant risks and may result in the loss of the capital you invest. You are advised to carefully read and study the legality of the company, products, and trading rules before deciding to invest your money. Be responsible and accountable in your trading.

RISK WARNING IN TRADING

Transactions via margin involve products that use leverage mechanisms, carry high risks, and are certainly not suitable for all investors. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE OF PROFIT on your investment, so be wary of those who guarantee profits in trading. You are advised not to use funds if you are not prepared to incur losses. Before deciding to trade, ensure that you understand the risks involved and also consider your experience.