Bitcoin Surges Toward $100,000 as Market Optimism Grows
XAUUSD
Prediction: Decrease
Fundamental Analysis:
On Tuesday, November 12, gold prices experienced a significant drop, reaching their lowest point in nearly two months as the U.S. Dollar Index surged to a four-month peak. This surge made gold more expensive for international buyers using non-dollar currencies. A notable outflow from gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also contributed to the bearish sentiment, weighing heavily on gold prices. By the market's close, gold declined by $21.20, or 0.81%, settling at $2,598.03 per ounce, with an intraday low of $2,589.40. Market sentiment shifted, reflecting reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. The fund withdrawals from gold ETFs signal a shift among investors toward riskier assets. Earlier, gold prices had been bolstered by optimism surrounding "Trump trade" policies before the U.S. elections. However, this momentum has waned due to renewed economic optimism. Trump's appointment decisions are expected to strengthen his negotiating leverage, increasing the probability of implementing tariffs as promised.
Technical Analysis:
Gold's recent decline below the October 10 low of $2,603 per ounce suggests a continued bearish trend. With the price now under the $2,600 threshold, the next significant support level lies at $2,550, followed by the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,537. A break below these levels could pave the way for a decline to $2,500. Conversely, if gold prices manage to reclaim the $2,600 level, attention will turn to the 50-day moving average at $2,647, with $2,650 serving as the subsequent resistance point. If the upward momentum persists, the next target would be the November 7 high of $2,710. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending away from neutral territory, indicating bearish momentum and suggesting that further price declines may be on the horizon.
USDJPY
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to struggle with maintaining strength, experiencing slight fluctuations against the US Dollar. As European markets open on Tuesday, there is a perception that Japan's political dynamics may deter the Bank of Japan (BoJ) from adopting a stricter monetary policy stance. The BoJ's October meeting revealed internal disagreement on whether to proceed with additional interest rate hikes. Conversely, expectations regarding President-elect Donald Trump's potential inflation-boosting policies are keeping US bond yields elevated, which in turn bolsters the US Dollar while putting pressure on the Yen. Nonetheless, market participants are wary of potential intervention by Japan to support its currency, which could moderate the Yen’s depreciation.
Technical Analysis:
On the technical front, USD/JPY's recent breakout above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and its closing above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline observed between July and September indicate a positive outlook for the pair. Technical indicators on the daily chart are showing strength and remain comfortably distant from the "overbought" zone, suggesting room for further gains. This momentum positions the USD/JPY pair for a potential move toward its recent multi-month peak near ¥154.70. A sustained break above this level could see gains extending to ¥155.00, with further resistance around the ¥155.65-¥155.70 zone, and possibly advancing to the ¥156.00 mark. On the downside, initial support is found at approximately ¥151.75, followed by last week's low near ¥151.25. A decisive breach of these levels may trigger additional selling pressure, possibly driving the pair below ¥151.00 and toward subsequent support around the ¥150.35-¥150.30 range, with a critical floor around ¥150.00.
EURUSD
Prediction: Decrease
Fundamental Analysis:
The U.S. election has led currency strategists to adjust their forecasts for the euro, now suggesting the potential for parity with the U.S. dollar. This revised outlook stems from the possibility of Trump returning to the White House, with anticipated global trade restrictions forming a major aspect of his economic agenda. Political uncertainties in key European nations, coupled with the impact of tariffs on European exports, could drive investors to reduce euro holdings. Following Trump's electoral success, the euro has already fallen by approximately 3%, approaching its lowest value of the year. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg now project a median euro price of $1.08 for next year, a decline from the prior forecast of $1.13. Should tariffs exert additional pressure on the European economy, it may prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to enact rate cuts more aggressively than the U.S. Federal Reserve. Simultaneously, growth-oriented U.S. policies may stimulate inflation, potentially slowing the pace of U.S. rate cuts.
Technical Analysis:
The daily EUR/USD chart highlights a strong bearish trend, with the currency pair trading significantly below both the 50-day EMA ($1.0895) and the 200-day EMA ($1.0888). The pace of the decline intensified once the pair broke beneath these moving averages, which are now serving as resistance. The position of the shorter-term EMA below the longer-term EMA reinforces the prevailing downward momentum, suggesting further potential for a continued decline in the near term. The pair is approaching a critical support level at $1.0600, which may temporarily stabilize the decline. If this support fails, the next significant level is $1.0500, where additional buying interest may emerge.
BTCUSD
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
Bitcoin is nearing a historic milestone, edging close to $90,000, with a peak value of $89,929. This surge aligns with what has been dubbed the "Trump Trade." Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie recently tweeted, "The new Congress begins on January 3, but President Trump won't take office until January 20. With majorities in both the House and Senate, we should have at least a dozen bills ready to reduce government overreach waiting on his desk by his first day." Elon Musk later amplified Massie's statement, saying, "Long live the Department of Government Efficiency!" This department, promised by Trump before the election, would be led by Musk and abbreviated as D.O.G.E., coincidentally sharing the same acronym as Dogecoin (DOGE). As a result, meme coins experienced a surge. Furthermore, FXEmpire analyst Ibrahim Ajibade highlighted that MicroStrategy recently purchased $2 billion worth of Bitcoin, further encouraging market optimism and providing momentum that may drive Bitcoin toward the $100,000 mark.
Technical Analysis:
Bitcoin has experienced a 33% increase over the past week, reaching and surpassing the $90,000 level on November 12. Technical indicators signal the potential for continued upward momentum. Bollinger Bands are widening, a sign of heightened market volatility, and current daily candle patterns are trading above the upper band, suggesting a persistent uptrend. Additionally, the Bull-Bear Power indicator, sitting at 13, shows strong buying interest despite the substantial recent gains. If this trend continues, Bitcoin may climb to the $100,000 milestone in the near term. Immediate support is observed around $85,000, with further support at $73,117, near the 20-day moving average. With ongoing robust demand for Bitcoin, a significant pullback seems less probable. Provided these support levels hold firm, the path for Bitcoin’s ascent remains solid, enticing more buyers seeking to capitalize on the ongoing rally.
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