Market Analysis

BTC/USD

Prediction: Increase

Bitcoin prices are in a strong uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows recently. The price has surpassed the $88,800 resistance level and is currently trading near $88,000, showing signs of continued upward movement. The nearest support level is currently $85,500. However, if the price continues to stay above key support levels, it may continue the uptrend and approach higher levels such as $90,500 or $92,000 in the short term.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Monetary Policy and Fed’s Impact:

The Fed maintains a cautious monetary policy: The U.S. Federal Reserve continues to maintain a cautious monetary policy, with expectations of no rate changes in 2025, especially given that inflation remains high.

Expectations for rate cuts: Investors expect the Fed may cut interest rates in the future, which would reduce the attractiveness of the USD and support risk assets like Bitcoin.

Activity of the “Whales”:

Whales move 41 million Pi Coins: Whales have withdrawn 41 million Pi Coins worth about $27 million from exchanges in 48 hours, indicating an increase in demand and expectations of value for these cryptocurrencies.

Impact on value: Reducing the number of Pi Coins on exchanges will increase the value of this coin if demand continues to remain stable without mass sell-offs.

SEC’s Direction and Policy Change on Bitcoin:

Paul Atkins appointed SEC chairman: Paul Atkins has officially become the chairman of the SEC, and it is expected that there will be a more lenient policy toward cryptocurrencies compared to his predecessor.

Market impact: If the SEC adopts a more flexible policy, the cryptocurrency market will benefit from a stable regulatory environment, which could boost the development of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Blockchain Platforms and DeFi Applications:

Ethereum and Vitalik Buterin’s improvements: Vitalik Buterin has made proposals to improve Ethereum, particularly in optimizing the scalability and performance of the blockchain. This could have a positive impact on demand for Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies.

Impact on DeFi: Decentralized Finance (DeFi) applications are growing, creating opportunities for Bitcoin and Ethereum to be the main currencies in this space.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels 

• $88,800: This is an important resistance level, the price has tested it and is currently trying to break above it.
• $89,500: If it breaks through $88,800, the next resistance level is $89,500, continuing the uptrend.
• $92,000: This is the potential highest resistance level in the short term.

Key Support Levels 

• $85,500: This is the current key support level. If the price falls below this level, a deeper correction may occur.
• $84,200: A stronger support level if the price continues to correct.

Technical Indicators:

RSI is at 60.55, indicating the market is not overbought, but caution is needed as there could be a correction if RSI approaches 70.

EMA 34 and EMA 89 are supporting the uptrend. If the price stays above these EMA levels, the uptrend will be reinforced. EMA 200 remains below the current price, supporting the long-term uptrend.

Current trading volume remains steady, showing strong participation from large investors. If volume increases significantly, the uptrend will be reinforced.

Price Action:

• The current BTC price is consolidating in the $88,000 - $88,800 range.
• If the price breaks above the $88,800 resistance and maintains above it, we can expect a strong move toward the $89,500 and $92,000 resistance levels.
• If it fails to stay above $88,000, the price could correct to the nearest support levels.

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