Market Analysis

Market Overview

United States

The U.S. market is experiencing heightened volatility due to escalating trade tensions. President Trump has ordered investigations and is considering new tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and critical minerals, following a recent increase of tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%. This move prompted a strong retaliatory response from China, fueling concerns of a prolonged trade war that 
could negatively impact global economic growth.

Although certain products such as smartphones, computers, and auto parts were exempted from tariffs, the market remains cautious. Investors fear that unstable tariff policies could weaken the U.S. economy, putting pressure on interest rates and the U.S. dollar.

Cryptocurrency

The cryptocurrency market is entering a correction phase after a strong rally, with Bitcoin facing rejection at the $86,400 resistance zone. Profit-taking pressure is increasing, accompanied by a significant wave of institutional fund outflows—up to $751 million USD in just one week, according to a report by CoinShares. Market sentiment has turned more cautious amid rising macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly due to new U.S. tariff policies and growing concerns over a potential recession.

Nevertheless, Bitcoin remains stable around the $80,000 mark—demonstrating stronger resilience compared to past downturns. The U.S. government’s recent move to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve further reflects the growing recognition of BTC as “digital gold.”

XAU/USD

Prediction: Increase

Gold continues its strong uptrend, setting a new all-time high at $3,275/oz in the trading session on April 16, 2025. Higher highs and higher lows are clearly visible on the 4H chart. Although the RSI is approaching the overbought zone, there is no clear sign of reversal yet. The bullish momentum remains supported by safe-haven demand and fundamental drivers. Traders should closely monitor price action in the $3,275 – $3,298 range to determine a suitable trading strategy.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Monetary Policy & Fed Impact:

The USD weakened by 0.3% in the morning session due to concerns over U.S. economic growth and unclear trade policies, supporting gold prices.

The market expects the Fed to hold rates steady in the short term, with a potential total cut of 85 basis points in 2025 if growth remains under threat.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield dropped by another 3 basis points to 4.333%, reinforcing the bullish case for gold.

Market Drivers & Inflation:

President Trump ordered a probe into the feasibility of taxing all critical mineral imports, including pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, raising concerns about global supply chains and increasing inflation pressure.

Previously, the U.S. hiked tariffs on Chinese goods up to 145%, prompting China’s retaliation with 125% tariffs, heightening the risk of a prolonged trade war.

Investors are awaiting U.S. Retail Sales data and a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell today to gain further insight into future monetary policy.

Market Sentiment & Geopolitics:

Gold is surging on safe-haven demand due to rising fears of recession and global instability.

Gold ETFs continue to register inflows, showing strong institutional confidence.

The People’s Bank of China and several other central banks are increasing their gold purchases, supporting long-term price appreciation.

ANZ raised its year-end gold price forecast to $3,600/oz, reflecting continued confidence in the uptrend.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 

Key Resistance Levels

●       $3,275.570 – Newly established all-time high; a breakout may target the Fibonacci 1.618 extension zone.

●       $3,298.400 – Next potential expansion resistance.

Key Support Levels

●       $3,206.345 – Immediate support; watch for price reaction upon any pullback.

●       $3,167.704 – Previous high turned into dynamic support.

●       $3,117.400 – Major confluence support (Bullish Order Block + EMA34).

●       $3,057.410 – Deeper support level aligned with EMA89.

●       $2,980.703 – $2,956.565 – Strong demand zone, base of the previous corrective wave.

Technical Indicators:

RSI (4H): CurrentI is around 73.82, nearing the overbought zone. No bearish divergence yet, suggesting the bullish momentum still holds. However, caution is advised for potential technical pullbacks.

Trading volume remains high, indicating significant investor interest. A sharp decline in volume in the upcoming sessions could signal a deeper correction.

Price Action:

●       Volume is increasing along with price – confirming the trend.

●       If the price pulls back to the $3,206 – $3,167 area and shows a bullish reaction, Buy on Dip strategy is favored.

●       If price breaks above $3,275 with strong momentum, the next target is $3,298 – $3,320.

●       Buying is preferred at support zones $3,206 – $3,167, and avoid chasing at resistance $3,275 – $3,298 while RSI is overbought.

●       Closely monitor CPI, Retail Sales, and Powell’s speech for confirmation before making trading decisions.

 

 

 BTC/USD

 

Prediction: Short-Term Correction Within a Long-Term Uptrend

Bitcoin remains in a long-term uptrend with higher lows forming since the $74,000 zone. However, in the short term, BTC is undergoing a correction after hitting strong resistance at $86,400. Profit-taking pressure is mounting, and technical indicators suggest waning buying momentum. Investors should monitor the support area around $83,200 to assess the potential for a rebound or deeper correction.

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

1. Market Sentiment & Fund Flows:

A CoinShares report revealed that Bitcoin faced $751 million in outflows — one of the largest weekly outflows of 2025, raising concerns about institutional investor sentiment, possibly due to profit-taking or macroeconomic risks.

Despite total inflows remaining positive at $545 million YTD, the recent sharp outflow indicates increased market caution.

2.  Macroeconomic & Geopolitical Policies:

Political developments in the U.S. continue to cause market volatility. President Donald Trump’s global tariff measures, though temporarily stalled, have sparked macro uncertainty and contributed to a sell-off in risk assets like crypto.

On a positive note, the U.S. government announced the creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, boosting Bitcoin's legitimacy and macro role in the long term.

3.  Expert Views:

According to Matt Hougan, CIO at Bitwise: “Bitcoin is acting like an asset that wants to go higher, if macro headwinds subside.”

He emphasized BTC’s growing role as “digital gold,” noting that its ability to hold around $80,000 indicates underlying strength.

However, Hougan cautioned that Bitcoin still hasn't fully proven itself as a safe-haven asset during extreme market stress, unlike gold.

4.  Institutional & Corporate Adoption:

Strive Asset Management continues urging large companies like Intuit to hold BTC as a hedge against AI risks and market volatility, following their success with GameStop.

This highlights a growing trend of institutional Bitcoin accumulation, laying a foundation for the long-term bullish trend.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels

●       $86,401 – Recent high, where price faced strong rejection.

●       $85,593 – Major resistance zone that repeatedly capped price.

●       $84,750 – Short-term resistance; aligns with 50% Fibonacci retracement from $86,401 (high) to $83,171 (low).

Key Support Levels

●       $83,200 – Strong short-term support; a break below this could deepen the correction.

●       $80,800 – Major support level, based on previous structure and psychological significance.

Technical Indicators:

RSI (4H): Currently around 49.5, below the neutral 50 mark, suggesting waning bullish momentum.

EMA 34, 89, 200: Price has just broken below the EMA 89 & 200. If it doesn't quickly recover, it may signal further downside pressure.

Volume: Slight decline in trading volume, indicating hesitation in market participation after failing to break above $86,400.

Price Action:

●       If BTC rebounds from $83,200, a buy position could be considered with targets at $84,750 – $85,500.

●       If $83,200 fails, watch the $82,200 and $80,800 levels for safer entry points. 

ETH/USD

Prediction: Mildly Bearish – Accumulation Phase

Ethereum is currently undergoing a mild correction and accumulation phase after rebounding from a bottom near $1,380 to $1,691. The price is now hovering around $1,600, with no clear breakout signals. The price action is facing strong resistance from the EMA 89 and has not yet broken above the $1,669 resistance zone. However, strong support at $1,546.55 – an area with significant whale accumulation – remains intact, suggesting a possible short-term bottom formation. 

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS 

1.  Fund Outflows & Market Sentiment:

Last week marked the largest crypto outflow of 2025, totaling $795 million, with Bitcoin accounting for $751 million, and Ethereum seeing $37 million in net outflows.

Even short products experienced outflows, indicating a wait-and-see attitude among investors, with sentiment turning cautious as they await clearer market signals.

2.  Tax Policy & Geopolitical Impact:

President Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China have contributed to global market instability.

However, a 90-day suspension of tariffs (excluding China) helped trigger a mild crypto market rebound by the weekend.

3.  Ethereum Price Performance:

ETH is currently down 2.43% on the day, trading around $1,594.75.

It is down 12.38% over the month and 52.32% year-to-date, still far from its ATH of $4,800.

Despite that, ETH has risen 7.80% from last week’s low of $1,479, indicating the strength of the $1,546.55 support level.

4.  Whale Behavior & On-Chain Data:

According to Glassnode and Ali Martinez, the $1,546.55 zone is a critical support level, with over 822,440 ETH accumulated. This marks it as a potential short-term bottom if the price dips again.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Key Resistance Levels 

• $1,669.1 – Immediate resistance, repeatedly rejected price; a key price behavior zone.
• $1,754.2 – Medium-term resistance; coincides with the EMA 200 on the H4 chart.
• $1,875 – Major reversal confirmation zone; a breakout here would signal a new bullish phase.

Key Support Levels 

• $1,575.3 – Nearest support, currently being tested.
• $1,546.55 – Strongest support; aligns with whale accumulation zone.
• $1,492.9 – Critical support; a key Bullish Order Block (Bull OB) zone.

Technical Indicators:

RSI: Currently at 47.14, indicating mild bearishness. While not oversold, momentum is fading. A prior bullish divergence supported the recent rebound.

EMA Analysis: Price is caught between EMA 34 (short-term support) and EMA 89 (dynamic resistance). EMA 200 is much higher at $1,875, and a breakout above this level would confirm a medium-term trend reversal.

Price Action:

●       If ETH holds above $1,575 and forms bullish candles, a move toward $1,669 is possible.

●       A break below $1,546 would make $1,492 the last line of defense before a deeper downtrend.

●       The current price range around $1,600 represents a key psychological and technical zone. The market remains indecisive – sellers aren’t strong enough to break support, while buyers lack the momentum to breach resistance.

●       Traders should monitor price behavior around $1,575 and $1,546.55 closely and consider short-term trades based on support/resistance rather than trend-following strategies.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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