Market Analysis
Market Overview
United States
The U.S. dollar remained stable but close to its three-year low against the euro and yen, with the DXY index at 99.86. It also hovered near a six-month low against the yen, at 143.53. The uncertainty from fluctuating tariff policies weakened the dollar, even though President Trump exempted some electronics from tariffs, but only temporarily.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 86 basis points this year to address recession risks. This has led investors to become increasingly wary of U.S. assets, further weakening the dollar.
China
China's market is currently under pressure as the offshore yuan continues to weaken, hovering around 7.32 per USD. This reflects concerns over escalating trade tensions between the US and China, as President Trump presses forward with investigations into national security risks related to semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports from China, which could lead to new tariffs.
Despite some moves to pause tariffs, such as exemptions for consumer electronics and reports of a potential halt on the 25% levy on auto imports, uncertainty remains. Chinese President Xi Jinping also warned that "no one wins in a trade war," emphasizing efforts to strengthen ties with ASEAN countries to counter US pressure.
XAU/USD
Prediction: Increase
The price of gold is currently maintaining a strong upward trend, continuing to set new highs and reflecting investors' demand for a safe haven amid global instability. Gold recently reached a record high of $3,245.42 per ounce, with the upward trend showing no signs of slowing as macroeconomic factors continue to support the precious metal's rise. However, in the short term, there may be some pressure for a correction as gold prices approach key resistance levels, but the upward trend is still being maintained.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Monetary Policy and Fed Impact:
The Fed maintains a cautious monetary policy amid trade uncertainties. Raphael Bostic, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, stated that the Fed will need to keep interest rates stable until there is more clarity on U.S. tariff plans. This has created expectations of rate cuts, which supports gold prices.
The market is currently forecasting that the Fed will cut interest rates by around 86 basis points by the end of 2025, reducing the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar and boosting demand for gold— a non-yielding asset.
Tariff Uncertainty and Global Economic Impact:
U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans are raising concerns about negative effects on the global economy. The U.S. is investigating imports like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors to impose tariffs under the guise of national security, which continues to escalate trade tensions between the U.S. and other countries. This has increased demand for gold as a safe haven asset.
Safe Haven Demand and Inflation:
Gold, as a non-yielding asset, always attracts attention during periods of economic instability, especially when interest rates are low and inflationary pressures are rising. U.S. inflation expectations have reached the highest level since 2023, further enhancing gold's appeal as a wealth protection asset.
Gold Investment Flows:
Investment in physical gold ETFs in China has surpassed investments in U.S. ETFs this month, indicating strong global demand for gold.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
$3,245.845: Recent historical high, which needs to be surpassed to confirm the continuation of the upward trend.
$3,250.000: Current psychological resistance level, being tested.
$3,298.400: Fibonacci extension level of 1.618, a distant target if prices continue to break previous highs. Key Support Levels
$3,167.704: Nearest support level (former high broken), crucial for maintaining the upward trend structure.
$3,117.400: Strong support zone, coinciding with a previously broken supply zone.
$3,057.410: Technical support level and intersection of the 89 EMA.
$2,980.703: Deep support zone, near the recovery low and the "Supply zone."
Technical Indicators:
RSI (4H): The current RSI is at 69.79, near the overbought region (above 70), suggesting a potential slight correction in the short term, but the upward trend is still intact.
Trading volume remains high, indicating significant investor interest. A sharp decline in volume in the upcoming sessions could signal a deeper correction.
Price Action:
● Investors may consider buying opportunities when prices correct to strong support zones, particularly around $3,057.41 or $2,956.56. If prices break these support levels, it's essential to monitor lower levels to identify safer entry points.
With both fundamental and technical factors supporting the upward trend, investors may continue to maintain a buying strategy when prices adjust at strong support zones. However, close attention should be paid to developments related to U.S. tariffs and the Fed's interest rate policy for making informed trading decisions.
EUR/USD
Prediction: Increase
The EUR/USD price is still in a strong upward trend, despite some short-term adjustments after reaching the peak of $1.1390. Recent highs and lows are progressively higher, indicating that the upward trend is still dominant. However, the resistance at $1.1390 is creating pressure, and a slight correction may occur if the price fails to break through this level. Investors need to monitor key support and resistance levels to make informed trading decisions.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Monetary Policy and Fed Impact:
Comments from Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, have added uncertainty regarding the Fed's interest rate policy. He stated that the U.S. economy is currently in a "pause" phase and the labor market remains tight, making interest rate cuts by the Fed unlikely in the short term.
However, the Fed’s outlook also suggests a potential policy adjustment in the long term, with forecasts for rate cuts later this year due to factors related to tax policies and global growth.
Global Economic Situation:
Global trade conditions and U.S. tax policies continue to have a significant impact on the U.S. dollar. The uncertainties from trade wars and decisions related to tariffs on imported goods could lead to a depreciation of the U.S. dollar, thereby supporting the price of gold.
Economic growth in China is facing challenges, with UBS lowering its GDP growth forecast for China to 3.4% in 2025. This raises concerns about global growth prospects, making gold a safe-haven asset.
U.S. Dollar Value:
The U.S. dollar continues to weaken, especially against the EUR and other major currencies, amid concerns about a potential economic recession and uncertainty surrounding U.S. tax policies. The dollar is also facing weakening due to investor withdrawals from U.S. assets, leading to a decline in the strength of the greenback.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
$1.1390: The nearest strong resistance level. If the price breaks this level, it could move toward higher levels like $1.1474.
$1.1320: The next resistance level.
Key Support Levels
$1.0890: The current strong support zone. If the price stays above this level, the upward trend could continue.
$1.0850: A firmer support zone.
Technical Indicators:
The current RSI is 67.93, near the overbought region, indicating a possible slight correction before the upward trend continues. However, the RSI hasn't reached overbought conditions (80), so the upward trend may still persist.
The 34 EMA is above the 89 EMA, signaling that the upward trend remains strong. The dynamic support zone around $1.0890 continues to support the upward trend.
Trading volume remains high, suggesting significant investor interest in EUR/USD. If volume drops sharply in the upcoming sessions, a deeper correction may occur.
Price Action:
● Wait for price reactions at key support and resistance levels, such as $1.0890 (support) and $1.1390 (resistance). If the price recovers from the support zone, a buying opportunity with a target of $1.1390 can be considered. If the price breaks support levels, monitor lower levels to find a reasonable entry point for selling.
EUR/USD is still in an upward trend with clear support and resistance levels. However, fundamental factors such as tax policies and trade war uncertainties could cause short-term corrections. Investors need to closely follow technical indicators and economic news for a suitable trading strategy.
BTC/USD
Prediction: Increase
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) continues to maintain a gentle upward trend in recent days, with solid support levels and growth momentum driven by positive macroeconomic factors. However, the price is facing a significant resistance zone around $85,500, where a recent high was recorded. Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating within a narrow range, and a breakout above this resistance could propel BTC to higher levels, particularly $88,000 and $90,000.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Bitcoin Holdings by Public Companies:
Bitcoin held by public companies grew by 16% in Q1 2025, totaling 688,000 BTC.
This indicates strong interest from institutions and large corporations in Bitcoin.
This increase boosts confidence in Bitcoin's value, supporting BTC's long-term upward trend.
Short-Term Price Movement:
Bitcoin has rebounded strongly from a low of $74,508 in early April and is currently trading above $84,000.
If it surpasses recent resistance levels at $85,500, Bitcoin could continue its upward momentum toward higher targets such as $88,000 and $90,000.
Macroeconomic Factors:
While Bitcoin's price maintains an upward trend, macroeconomic factors such as global trade disputes and fluctuations in central bank policies may still affect Bitcoin's value.
However, the increasing involvement of large companies investing in Bitcoin shows that confidence in the cryptocurrency is strengthening, further fueling BTC's upward momentum.
Both fundamental and macroeconomic factors are positively supporting Bitcoin’s upward trend, but investors should closely monitor these elements to adjust their trading strategies accordingly.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
$85,593: This is an important resistance level. If Bitcoin breaks above this level, it could continue to rise to higher levels such as $88,000 and $90,000.
$88,756 (High): This is a recent high, and if Bitcoin surpasses this level, it could continue the upward trend.
Key Support Levels
$80,000: A key support level, and if the price drops below this level, it could continue to adjust to lower support levels like $76,619.
$74,434 (Low): This is a recent low, and if Bitcoin drops to this level, it would act as strong support for the next upward move.
Technical Indicators:
The current RSI is at 67.88, near the overbought region. However, there is no clear bearish divergence, suggesting that while there might be some technical correction pressure, it is likely just a temporary pause before the trend continues upwards.
Price Action:
- After a strong upward movement, Bitcoin is consolidating lightly around $85,500. If it breaks through this resistance, it could aim for higher levels such as $88,000 or $90,000.
- If there is a deeper correction, the support zones at $80,000 and $74,434 will be critical areas to watch for potential buying opportunities.
Bitcoin is still in an upward trend, supported by both macroeconomic and technical factors. Investors should stay informed about market sentiment and key resistance/support levels for better trading decisions.
Disclaimer
Derivative investments involve significant risks that may result in the loss of your invested capital. You are advised to carefully read and study the legality of the company, products, and trading rules before deciding to invest your money. Be responsible and accountable in your trading.
RISK WARNING IN TRADING
Transactions via margin involve leverage mechanisms, have high risks, and may not be suitable for all investors. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE OF PROFIT on your investment, so be cautious of those who promise profits in trading. It's recommended not to use funds if you're not ready to incur losses. Before deciding to trade, make sure you understand the risks involved and also consider your experience.