Market Analysis
XAU/USD
Prediction: Increase
Gold has reached a record high and continues its upward trend amid concerns about inflation and the Fed’s interest rate policy.
The RSI indicator is in the overbought zone on the 4-hour timeframe, suggesting a potential short-term correction before continuing the uptrend.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Monetary Policy and Fed Impact
Interest rate policy: The Fed is maintaining high interest rates to control inflation, but the market expects at least two rate cuts this year. This could weaken the USD and support gold.
Key economic data: Upcoming reports such as CPI and NFP will determine whether the Fed adjusts its policy.
Inflation and Market Drivers
Inflation concerns: If inflation data continues to exceed forecasts, the Fed may delay rate cuts, putting pressure on gold.
Central bank gold demand: Central banks, particularly in China and Russia, continue purchasing gold for reserve diversification, supporting the long-term bullish trend.
Geopolitical and Market Sentiment
Global economic instability: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over China’s economy are driving safe-haven flows into gold.
US-China trade policy: Uncertainties regarding tariffs and trade measures between the two economic giants could impact the USD and indirectly influence gold prices.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
● $2,882/oz: Recent high; a breakout could push prices towards $2,900/oz.
● $2,900/oz: Strong psychological resistance, potentially triggering selling pressure.
Key Support Levels
● $2,844/oz: Initial support zone; a correction here could lead to a rebound.
● $2,827/oz: Next support level; if broken, prices may drop to $2,793/oz.
● $2,793/oz: Strongest near-term support; if gold declines further, this level could attract strong buying interest.
RSI: 72.07 on the H4 chart, indicating an overbought condition and potential short-term correction.
EMA level: Price remains above the 34 EMA, 89 EMA, and 200 EMA, confirming the dominant bullish trend.
Price Action: If gold breaks above $2,882 with strong buying momentum, the uptrend may continue toward $2,900. In case of a correction, the $2,844 - $2,827 range will be a crucial support zone for buy opportunities.
Trading Volume: Physical gold demand from the US and ETFs continues to rise, supporting the gold price rally.
Gold remains in an uptrend but may face short-term corrections due to overbought RSI levels and strong resistance at $2,882 - $2,900. Investors should wait for price action confirmation and key economic factors before entering new trades.
EUR/USD
Prediction: Increase
EUR/USD is showing signs of recovery as the USD weakens due to lower U.S. Treasury yields and expectations that the Fed will maintain interest rates. However, ECB’s monetary policy stance may limit the upside potential.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Monetary Policy and Fed Impact
The Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged for now, with market expectations of a total 45-basis-point cut this year. U.S. Treasury yields have fallen to their lowest level in over a month, reducing the attractiveness of the USD.
ECB’s Monetary Policy
The ECB maintains a tight monetary policy but may consider easing if economic growth in the Eurozone weakens.
Impact of Other Currencies
The Japanese Yen is strengthening as expectations grow that the BOJ will continue raising interest rates.
The Bank of England (BoE) may cut interest rates, influencing the overall trend of major currencies.
The PBOC is holding the Yuan stable, helping to maintain stability in Asian currency markets.
Macroeconomic and Trade Risks
The USD is weakening as trade war risks diminish, creating a favorable environment for the EUR.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may ease its control over the Rupee, leading to depreciation and indirectly affecting capital flows in the forex market.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
● 1.0403 (200 EMA): A crucial level; breaking above it could open the way for a move toward 1.04326 - 1.05001.
● 1.04326 - 1.04500: Bearish order block, likely to face strong selling pressure.
Key Support Levels
● 1.03749 (89 EMA): Losing this level could trigger a downturn.
● 1.03398 - 1.02896: Next critical support zone.
● 1.02221 - 1.01766: Deeper support area in case of a strong decline.
RSI: 53.81 on the H4 chart, indicating a consolidation phase before a clear trend emerges.
EMA Trends:The 34 EMA (green) and 89 EMA (yellow) are crossing near the current price, signaling potential trend reversal or sideways movement. The 200 EMA (dark blue) remains above the price, acting as dynamic resistance.
The weakening USD, driven by lower Treasury yields and Fed policies, supports EUR/USD’s upside potential. However, the ECB’s stance on monetary policy may act as a limiting factor. Traders should closely monitor macroeconomic developments and price action before making trading decisions.
BTC/USD
Prediction: Decrease
Bitcoin remains in a long-term uptrend as Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues accumulating BTC. However, the market is under pressure from Ethereum’s correction and uncertainty in U.S. monetary policy.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Strategy’s Bitcoin Accumulation Strategy
Strategy reported a net loss of $670 million in Q4 but increased its BTC holdings by 218,887 BTC, bringing its total to 471,107 BTC (worth over $45 billion). The company is accelerating plans to raise $42 billion over the next three
years to buy more BTC, supporting long-term price appreciation.
Impact from Ethereum and Altcoins
Ethereum is at a critical support level against BTC on the ETH/BTC pair but remains weaker than Bitcoin. If ETH recovers strongly, capital may flow into altcoins, temporarily slowing BTC’s rally. ETH recently experienced one of the
largest liquidations in history, reducing overall market enthusiasm. Bitcoin is facing selling pressure as the broader crypto market shows signs of correction.
Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment
The Fed has not signaled a clear stance on rate cuts, keeping the USD strong, which could pressure BTC in the short term. Michael Saylor could play a role in crypto policy under the Trump administration if invited as an advisor,
creating long-term positive sentiment for BTC. The strong USD reduces Bitcoin’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Key Resistance Levels
● $99,198 – The nearest resistance; BTC must break above this to reverse the downtrend.
● $102,216 – A higher resistance level that could be crucial if BTC recovers.
Key Support Levels
● $96,014 – Strong support; a breakdown here could trigger a deeper decline.
● $90,437 – The next major support; losing this level could lead to further correction.
EMA: The 34 EMA, 89 EMA, and 200 EMA have formed a bearish crossover, confirming a negative trend.
RSI: 42.88 – Currently in neutral territory but leaning bearish. If RSI drops below 40, selling pressure could increase significantly, pushing BTC toward lower support levels.
BTC/USD is in a short-term downtrend after losing key support. While long-term fundamentals remain strong, short-term pressures from Ethereum’s correction, monetary policy uncertainty, and a strong USD could keep BTC under pressure. Traders should monitor support levels and RSI trends for signs of further downside or potential reversal.
Disclaimer
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