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Bob Vallier, a resident of Paris who has spent most of the past 30 years outside the United States, has already cast his vote in the upcoming November 5 election from his home state of Michigan.

"I understand that what happens in America impacts the rest of the world, and my experiences abroad have reinforced that," said Vallier, who serves as the LGBTQ+ caucus chair for Democrats Abroad.

Vallier’s vote, along with those of other Americans living overseas, could play a significant role in tight races in battleground states like Michigan. Current polls indicate that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris holds a slight advantage over Republican rival Donald Trump in this highly competitive state.

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) estimates that around 1.6 million U.S. voters living abroad are eligible to vote in one of seven key swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—that are likely to determine the election's outcome.

This overseas voting demographic is thought to lean Democratic. In the 2020 election, data from Vote From Abroad, a non-partisan voter support tool associated with the DNC, showed that about 75% of overseas voters identified as Democrats.

For the first time in a presidential election, the DNC has allocated around $300,000 in funding to Democrats Abroad to assist with registering Americans living abroad to vote and enhancing mail-in voting operations. They have also launched social media advertisements encouraging overseas Americans to submit their ballots.

"This election will be decided by small margins, and every single vote is critical," stated DNC spokesperson Maddy Mundy. "We aim to engage every eligible voter, regardless of where they reside."

TRUMP'S CAMPAIGN TARGETS TAX REFORM FOR EXPATS

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is also courting American expatriates. Earlier this month, he proposed eliminating the double taxation of Americans living abroad.

While details on how this policy would be implemented remain unclear, it could alleviate the burdensome requirement for U.S. citizens to file income taxes in the United States, regardless of their residency.

Currently, Americans living abroad are not required to pay U.S. taxes on their first $126,500 in earned income and can take advantage of certain foreign tax credits. However, they often face bureaucratic complexities that expatriates from other countries do not encounter.

"For many Americans abroad, including myself, our primary interaction with the U.S. government is through the IRS each April when we file our taxes," said Zennon Kapron, a fintech consultant based in Singapore who is registered to vote in New York. "If a candidate genuinely addresses tax reform for expatriates, it could influence my voting choice."

Solomon Yue, CEO of Republicans Overseas, noted that Republicans have long advocated for improved taxation policies for Americans abroad, suggesting that this issue could significantly sway expatriate voters. "I can already see Democrats Abroad feeling the pressure," he remarked.

Despite Trump's tax pledge, he has also made unsubstantiated claims that Democrats are trying to manipulate the overseas vote. The Republican National Committee (RNC), which is closely aligned with Trump's campaign, has launched legal challenges targeting overseas voting, particularly in Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. If successful, these lawsuits could restrict the number of Americans abroad eligible to vote.

This prompted six House Democrats to send a letter to the defense secretary inquiring whether these lawsuits would infringe on the constitutional rights of service members, condemning the allegations as attempts to "sow discord and misinformation."

CHALLENGES IN VOTING FROM ABROAD

Attracting overseas voters is challenging, with estimates suggesting there are between 4.4 million and 9 million potential voters, yet only a small fraction participate in elections.

Unlike citizens of many other countries, U.S. voters cannot simply visit their embassies on Election Day to cast their ballots. Instead, they must submit their ballots to the states where they are registered, typically via mail.

According to the U.S. Federal Voting Assistance Program, most eligible overseas voters tend not to vote. In the 2020 presidential election, fewer than 8% of them returned ballots, compared to an overall turnout rate of 67%. The participation rate for overseas voters in the 2022 midterm elections was even lower, at just 3.4%.

In a central Paris neighborhood, volunteers have established a stand every Monday and Tuesday afternoon outside a café to assist Americans in navigating the complexities of state and local election laws.

Over the course of two hours, they guide individuals through the process of registering to vote or filling out backup ballots in case there are issues with their original ones.

"The instructions are often unclear," noted one volunteer, Tanya, a retired lawyer.

Claudie Le Corre, who lives in a southeastern suburb of Paris, visited the stand last week after not receiving her ballot from New York, where she is registered. She suspected she had been removed from the voter rolls and completed paperwork to re-register.

"I am concerned about the future for our children, and all these populist movements—including Donald Trump—worry me," Le Corre expressed.

Paraphrasing text from "Reuters" all rights reserved by the original author.