Market Analysis

US market index futures are unchanged, highlighting CPI data

Amos Simanungkalit · 10 Oct8.6K Views

U.S. stock index futures remained relatively unchanged during evening trading on Wednesday as investors awaited key consumer inflation data, which is expected to influence the future trajectory of interest rates.

Futures steadied following a positive session on Wall Street, with the Dow reaching record highs after the release of the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes. These minutes revealed that a significant number of policymakers supported a 50 basis point rate cut. However, the minutes did not indicate a clear path for future rate cuts, leaving investors uncertain about the potential for further reductions this year.

As of 19:17 ET (23:17 GMT), S&P 500 Futures held steady at 5,840.0 points, while Nasdaq 100 Futures were flat at 20,457.25 points. Dow Jones Futures also remained flat at 42,830.0 points.

CPI Data Anticipated for Rate Guidance Attention is now focused on the consumer price index (CPI) report, due on Thursday, which is expected to offer more insight into inflation trends and interest rate decisions. The report is likely to show a slight dip in overall CPI inflation, while core CPI—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—is expected to remain stable. Persistent inflation could reduce the Federal Reserve's urgency to cut rates aggressively.

This outlook was reinforced by strong payroll data released last week, which tempered expectations for another 50 basis point rate cut in November. According to the CME Fedwatch tool, traders are pricing in a 75.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut in November and a 24.5% chance of no change.

Despite concerns, strong labor market data and sticky inflation suggest that the U.S. economy remains resilient, reducing the likelihood of a near-term recession. This resilience supported gains on Wall Street, with economically sensitive sectors performing well.

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 climbed 0.7% to 5,792.04 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1% to a record close of 42,512.0 points. The NASDAQ Composite rose 0.6%, ending at 18,291.82 points.

Q3 Earnings Season Kicks Off The focus is also shifting to third-quarter earnings reports, with several major banks slated to release their results on Friday. JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM), Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC), and Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK) will kick off the earnings season, followed by Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS), Bank of America Corp (NYSE: BAC), and Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C) next week.

Additionally, earnings from Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH), and Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (NASDAQ: WBA) are expected early next week.