Market Analysis

Gold Prices Expected to Decline Amid US Rate Cut Delay

Dupoin · 11 Jun 2024133K Views

XAUUSD

Prediction: Decline

Fundamental Analysis:

Expectations for a US rate cut are being delayed following Friday’s better-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, which indicated a strong US labor market. The first 25 basis point cut is now anticipated for the December meeting, though the November meeting remains a possibility. Overall, 38 basis points of cuts are projected for this year, implying uncertainty between one or two rate adjustments.

Technical Analysis:

Gold prices are shifting into a bearish trend as the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) drops below the 50 mark. We are monitoring the key support level around 2275. If prices fall below 2275, we can expect a continued decline towards the previous support levels of 2200 and 2000.

EURUSD

Forecast: Expected Decrease

Fundamental Analysis:

The Euro is exhibiting weakness across several EUR pairs in early trading following the weekend’s European elections, which revealed a significant rightward shift. French President Emmanuel Macron, having faced a substantial defeat by Marine Le Pen’s National Party, has called for a snap election. Meanwhile, in Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrat Party was outperformed by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. France is set to vote again on June 30th, and Chancellor Scholz is now under increasing pressure to also call for an election.

Technical Analysis:

The EUR/USD pair has been trading within a sideways range between 1.1 and 1.04 throughout the year. Given the fundamental news, we anticipate a decrease in the EUR/USD price, expecting it to reach 1.044. Should it fall below this level, the price could test areas even lower.

USDJPY

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis:

The Bank of Japan is anticipated to discuss reducing bond purchases during its policy meeting concluding on Friday. Some investors also expect the central bank to prepare for an interest rate hike next month. Governor Kazuo Ueda and his fellow board members are predicted to maintain the policy rate between 0 and 0.1% at the end of their two-day meeting, as per the consensus of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Technical Analysis:

The USD/JPY pair has been on an upward trajectory, and technical indicators suggest this trend will continue. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is expected to exceed 70, indicating a potential short entry point. If the price reaches the 157.8 to 160 range, a decline is anticipated.

BTCUSD

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis

Crypto infrastructure provider Fireblocks has expanded its services to include Coinbase International. Meanwhile, Singapore has become the latest target of the Akira ransomware, and U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have shown significant activity. Last week, U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) purchased 25,729 BTC, approximately eight times the amount mined during the same period, according to HODL15Capital. This marked the largest week of Bitcoin purchases since mid-March when Bitcoin reached its current all-time high of $73,679.

Technical Analysis

Recently, Bitcoin's price pulled back to the $68,000 level. We anticipate a further minor retracement before the price tests the all-time high again. The RSI level indicates that Bitcoin is heavily oversold, presenting a promising buying opportunity. We suggest entering the market now and targeting price increases on the upside.

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