Market Analysis

XAUUSD

Forecast: Decline Expected

Fundamental Analysis: 

Gold prices for XAU/USD showed modest gains on Friday, bolstered by a weaker US dollar and lower US yields. Market sentiment leans towards potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve following weaker US GDP data. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could further support gold as a safe-haven asset.

Later in the day, traders will closely monitor the US April Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Core PCE), a key inflation gauge for the Fed. Expectations point to a 0.3% monthly increase and a 2.8% year-on-year rise for April. Higher-than-expected inflation could strengthen the US dollar, limiting upward movement in gold prices.

Technical Analysis: 

Technically, gold prices have sharply declined from recent highs around $2450, failing to sustain rebounds at key Fibonacci support levels (0.618, 0.5, 0.382) and breaking through them. The next potential support level to watch is around $2277.6, where a retracement to previous levels might occur.

USDJPY

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis:

Tokyo's inflation data for May showed acceleration, setting the stage for potentially higher national CPI in the coming weeks. This trajectory could influence the Bank of Japan's stance on future rate hikes, although they are not expected to rush. Recent yen weakening towards a 34-year low near 160.245 prompted suspicions of Japanese intervention, with official figures awaited from the Ministry of Finance.

Technical Analysis:

Following initial dips to around 156.60 post-data, USD/JPY has rebounded to approximately 156.78. There's a potential for further gains towards 158-160 levels before potential intervention.

BTCUSD

Predicted Increase:

Fundamental Analysis:

On Thursday, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) granted approval for Nasdaq, CBOE, and NYSE to list exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to the price of ether. This unexpected approval marks a significant step forward for these firms and the cryptocurrency sector, potentially allowing these products to commence trading later this year pending final issuer approval.

Technical Analysis:

Bitcoin recently experienced a correction below the $68,000 mark, testing support near $67,000 before initiating a recovery. The price rebounded above $68,000, breaking a key bearish trend line with resistance at $67,800 on the hourly chart of BTC/USD. It surpassed levels at $68,500 and $69,000 but faced selling interest around $69,500, reaching a high of $69,548 before retracing. Despite dipping below $69,000, the price found support near $68,000, aided by the 100 hourly Simple Moving Average (SMA). Currently, Bitcoin trades above $68,000, indicating bullish sentiment.

HSI

Prediction: Increase

Fundamental Analysis:

Asian stocks showed gains on Friday, set for their fourth consecutive month of growth. The dollar remained stable, with investors focusing on upcoming inflation data from Europe and the U.S., crucial for global interest rate trends. U.S. economic growth for the first quarter fell short of expectations due to a downward revision in consumer spending, impacting Treasury yields and the dollar.

Technical Analysis:

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) has been trending upwards, responding to Fibonacci retracement levels. After retracement earlier this week, the current price presents an opportune entry point. The index aims to test the $19,820 level, eyeing its all-time high at $23,000.

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