Market Analysis
XAUUSD
Prediction: Decrease
Fundamental Analysis:
The US dollar's recent rally came to a halt last week following the release of the Federal Reserve's minutes. This week, the dollar's performance will be influenced by key inflation and GDP data. If the data is favorable, the dollar could surge towards 106. The previous uptrend in the US dollar paused as inflation expectations decreased, encouraging risk-taking and causing a retreat in the dollar's value. Market participants are increasingly anticipating a potential Fed rate cut later this year, with current probabilities suggesting a 50% chance of a cut in September, increasing to 63% for November, and a significant 82% for December.
Technical Analysis:
Gold prices have been declining rapidly since reaching their all-time high of $2,450. According to last week’s Fibonacci retracement analysis, the price has broken through all key levels and established a new low around $2,320. We should closely monitor the prices for now until a clear direction for gold prices emerges.
USDJPY
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki expressed concerns on Tuesday about the adverse effects of the yen's current weakness. He reiterated Japan's stance against excessive currency fluctuations, highlighting the dual impact on the economy. While a weaker yen can enhance exporters' profits, it simultaneously increases the burden on companies and consumers by raising import prices, Suzuki explained during a parliamentary committee meeting.
Technical Analysis:
The USD/JPY pair has been gradually recovering since reaching the $160 mark. However, there are currently no clear entry points or technical indicators to suggest a definitive price direction. It is advisable to remain on the sidelines for now and wait for more conclusive signals before taking action.
BTCUSD
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
Bitcoin surged past the crucial $70,000 mark on Monday. This rise comes in the wake of reports indicating that Argentinian authorities are partnering with officials from Bitcoin-friendly El Salvador to enhance the adoption of the leading cryptocurrency.
Technical Analysis:
Bitcoin has been on an upward trajectory, aiming to reclaim its all-time high of approximately $73,000. Despite failing to reach this level last week, it remains important to monitor the price movement closely. If Bitcoin manages to break through the $73,000 barrier, the next target could be around $100,000.
WTI
WTI Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
Oil prices stabilized during Asian trading on Tuesday, recovering from a decline that lasted over three months. The market's attention is primarily on the upcoming inflation data set to be released this week. On Monday, crude prices were bolstered by lighter trading volumes due to public holidays in both the UK and the U.S. Additionally, oil saw some bargain buying after dropping to its lowest point since early February last week.
Technical Analysis:
Brent oil's price action has been weak, with prices declining steadily since 2022. Currently, prices are not aligning with any technical indicators, making it difficult for traders to identify entry points. However, the daily chart suggests a potential shift in direction as the price shows signs of diverging from its bearish trend.
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