Market Analysis
XAUUSD
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
Last week, the U.S. dollar, represented by the DXY index, experienced a significant decline. This drop was driven by consumer price index figures that were softer than expected, reigniting optimism that the disinflationary trend, which began in late 2023 but had stalled earlier this year, has resumed.
Gold reached a new milestone, trading above its previous all-time high of $2,431. However, it quickly fell back below this level as Federal Reserve speakers indicated that rate cuts are still not imminent.
Technical Analysis:
On April 12, gold's intraday high of around $2,430 was surpassed on Monday, hitting the 1 on the Fibonacci level. This prompted many buyers to take profits, but based on fundamental analysis, we expect gold's price to continue rising. From a technical perspective, we can look to previous support levels as key entry points, such as $2,400. We anticipate the price to retrace back to the midpoint of the range and then increase to $2,500.
USDJPY
Prediction: Decrease
Fundamental Analysis:
USD/JPY remains in a narrow range as the US Dollar consolidates. Despite the Federal Reserve officials' hawkish stance on interest rates, the US Dollar remains on the sidelines. Investors are keenly awaiting the upcoming US S&P Global PMI and Japan’s National CPI data for further direction.
Technical Analysis:
USD/JPY has been trading sideways within the 0 and 0.618 Fibonacci levels. Currently, there are no strong technical or fundamental indicators suggesting significant price movements. However, if the price tests the $154 and $151 levels, we anticipate a potential move towards the lows.
BTCUSD
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
Crypto whales have accumulated nearly $16.8 billion worth of Bitcoin following the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States. Institutional investors are showing strong interest in the cryptocurrency market, with data indicating significant purchases by deep-pocketed investors after the ETF launch. This influx has led to whales amassing over $16 billion in BTC.
Technical Analysis:
The Bitcoin price has been adhering to Fibonacci levels, and after breaking through the 0.618 level at $66,700, it has rallied to test previous highs. Additionally, the 50-day moving average has crossed above the 200-day moving average, indicating a bullish trend. Despite a recent retracement, it is expected that the price will reach the 1 Fibonacci level, around $73,000.
HSI
Prediction: Increase
Fundamental Analysis:
Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose on Monday, with mainland China extending its 8-month highs. Investors are eagerly awaiting economic data from the region this week. On Friday, the People's Bank of China announced some of the most aggressive measures yet to stimulate the property sector. These measures include a 300 billion yuan fund to clear excess housing inventory, lowering the minimum mortgage down payment requirements, and removing the national floor for mortgage interest rates.
Technical Analysis:
The Hang Seng Index has been rising and reacting in line with the Fibonacci retracement levels. We can consider two entry points: one around the mid-level between 0.618 and 0.5, and another at the 0.5 level. From these points, we can anticipate the price to reach back up to its previous high of around $23,000. This position is expected to be a long-term one, potentially taking up to six months to realize.
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