Market Analysis

 

XAUUSD

 

Prediction: Increase

 

Fundamental Analysis:

 

Following slightly lower inflation and weaker first-quarter GDP growth in the USA, indications suggest the economy is cooling off. This has weakened the dollar against most major currencies, while gold has approached its historical highs. Despite consistently high inflation in previous months, April's data showed a surprising decline, partly attributed to a significant miss in the Non-Farm Payrolls report, diverging from the trend of positive surprises.

 

Technical Analysis:

 

The intraday high on April 12th, near $2,430, stands as a key short-term resistance level. A break above this point could potentially lead to further upward movement. Investors may consider a retracement towards the Fibonacci level of 0.5 around $2,356.447 as a potential entry point towards higher highs.

 

 

USDJPY

Prediction: Upward Movement Expected

Fundamental Analysis:

Investors will closely watch Bank of Japan's response to Q1 GDP figures on Friday, May 17. The diminished risk of yen intervention and increasing bets on a Fed rate cut in September are influencing market sentiment. Despite recent hawkish Fed statements, demand for the Japanese Yen remains subdued. April saw improved service sector activity, a focal point for the Bank of Japan, though concerns linger over household spending. Japan's Q1 2024 GDP contracted by 0.5%, primarily due to weak private consumption, dampening expectations for a near-term interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan.

Later in the day, market focus will shift to commentary from FOMC members following recent inflation and labor market data.

 

Technical Analysis:

USD/JPY remains bullish, trading above both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs. A break above the 156 level could propel the pair towards 158, with potential further upside to challenge the April 29 high of 160.209. Conversely, a decline below the 50-day EMA may test support at 151.861.

Overall, Friday's market dynamics will be influenced by central bank commentary and economic data releases.

 

 

 

BTCUSD

 

Forecast: Rise

 

Fundamental Analysis:

 

Bitcoin is currently trading slightly above $65,000, having corrected by 1.25% following a recent surge. This upward movement was driven by factors such as weaker US CPI data, a dovish sentiment from the FOMC, and a breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern.

 

Despite this minor correction, the outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish. Notably, Andrew Tate's announcement to invest $100 million in Bitcoin and a decrease in BTC supply on exchanges are contributing to positive market sentiment. On-chain data shows that Bitcoin supply on centralized exchanges has dropped to 1,728,782 BTC, indicating a strong trend towards long-term holding among investors.

Technical Analysis:

 

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is currently finding support near the $64,750 level, which marks a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and today’s pivot point. Holding above this level suggests potential for a bullish rebound, with resistance expected around $66,600 and subsequent hurdles at $67,820 and $69,000. Conversely, a break below $64,750 could lead to further support tests at $63,300, bolstered by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $63,150.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), now at 62, indicates bullish momentum after exiting overbought conditions, supporting the potential for further upside if current levels hold.

 

 

 

HSI

Prediction: Upward Trend

Fundamental Analysis:

The Hang Seng Index started the day with gains, potentially closing at its highest level since August, marking a substantial 14% increase for the year. Key contributors to the rise include strong performances from Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., Baidu Inc., and JD.com Inc., which exceeded profit expectations.

In China, April saw a steeper decline in both new and used home sales compared to the previous month. Market focus is on potential government measures to support the property sector, including reports of plans to address excess inventory, with officials set to discuss this on Friday.

Meanwhile, Singapore reported a slower decline in non-oil domestic exports (NODX) for April, with a notable improvement in electronic goods offsetting declines in other sectors like pharmaceuticals.

Technical Analysis:

 

Since early 2024, the Hang Seng Index has been steadily climbing from its low of 15,000 points. The current momentum suggests a potential continuation towards the 23,000 level. Investors may consider entering positions soon for long-term holdings or wait for better entry points around the 50-day or 200-day moving averages.

 

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer

Derivative investments involve significant risks and may result in the loss of the capital you invest. You are advised to carefully read and study the legality of the company, products, and trading rules before deciding to invest your money. Be responsible and accountable in your trading.

RISK WARNING IN TRADING

Transactions via margin involve products that use leverage mechanisms, carry high risks, and are certainly not suitable for all investors. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE OF PROFIT on your investment, so be wary of those who guarantee profits in trading. You are advised not to use funds if you are not prepared to incur losses. Before deciding to trade, ensure that you understand the risks involved and also consider your experience.