Market Analysis

XAUUSD

Forecast: Bullish

Fundamental Analysis:

In the latest Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, the U.S. labor market saw a modest addition of 17.5k jobs in April, falling short of the anticipated 24.3k. This marked the smallest uptick in employment over the past six months. Concurrently, the unemployment rate climbed to 3.9%, accompanied by a deceleration in wage growth. Following the release of this data, gold briefly surged to $2320 last Friday. However, bullish sentiment was curbed by hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, leading to a retracement in gold prices. Moreover, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain a key factor, with any escalation likely to stimulate safe-haven demand and bolster gold prices.

Technical Analysis:

Gold is presently hovering around the $2300 mark, with traders closely monitoring fluctuations in the employment rate for insights into the Federal Reserve's future policy actions. A breach above $2305 could propel gold towards $2350, while a dip below $2300 may test support levels at $2230. Should $2300 demonstrate robust support, buyers may endeavor to drive prices back towards the $2390 threshold.

USDJPY

Forecast: Rise

Fundamental Analysis: 

Following the release of the non-farm payrolls (NFP) report last Friday, the USD/JPY pair experienced a decline from approximately 160.00 to 153.00 due to the report falling short of market expectations. Uncertainty surrounding certain actions further contributed to the pair's downturn. As the situation stabilizes, questions arise regarding the duration of these factors' influence on the USD/JPY pair, and whether they will sustain current levels or potentially drive it lower.

Technical Analysis: 

From a technical standpoint, the USD/JPY pair exhibited a rebound after initially dropping in response to the US jobs report, finding support at the $151 level. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), indicating market strength, is nearing the 30% mark, hinting at a potential upward movement. If this momentum persists, there is a possibility of the USD/JPY pair advancing towards the resistance point at $154.

EURUSD

Forecast: Upward Movement

Fundamental Analysis:

In April, the US witnessed a significant shortfall in non-farm job numbers, coupled with a rise in the unemployment rate. Consequently, the USD experienced a rapid decline, propelling the EUR/USD pair to surge notably last Friday. Demonstrating resilience, the Euro maintained its strong stance, extending its upward trajectory for the third consecutive day.

Technical Analysis:

Examining the 4-hour chart, the 14-RSI indicator registers above the 50-mark, indicating a prevailing bullish sentiment. Furthermore, the EUR/USD comfortably sits above the 100, 50, and 20-period SMA lines, reinforcing the bullish outlook.

The immediate challenge lies within the $1.0750 - $1.0755 range, representing the Fibonacci 38.2% level. Sustaining stability above this range could pave the way for further gains, targeting $1.0790 - $1.0800 (Fibonacci 50% level) and $1.0830 (Fibonacci 61.8% level), signaling continued bullish momentum.

BTCUSD

BTCUSD Forecast: Upward Movement Expected

Fundamental Analysis: 

Amidst a lower-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report last Friday, anticipation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has resurfaced, propelling Bitcoin back above the $63,000 mark. Notably, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF market halted seven days of consecutive outflows, while Hong Kong observed notable inflows into Bitcoin funds.

Technical Analysis: 

Technical indicators suggest a mixed outlook: Bitcoin remains below the 50-day moving average but maintains position above the 200-day moving average. This implies a short-term bearish trend alongside a long-term bullish sentiment. Should Bitcoin breach the 50-day moving average and the $60,365 resistance level, bullish momentum could drive prices towards $69,000. However, considerable selling pressure might arise around the $64,000 resistance mark, which aligns with the 50-day moving average. Conversely, if support at $60,365 weakens, bearish sentiment could lead to a test of the $55,000 support level.

Disclaimer

Derivative investments involve significant risks and may result in the loss of the capital you invest. You are advised to carefully read and study the legality of the company, products, and trading rules before deciding to invest your money. Be responsible and accountable in your trading.

RISK WARNING IN TRADING

Transactions via margin involves products that use leverage mechanisms, carry high risks, and are certainly not suitable for all investors. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE OF PROFIT on your investment, so be wary of those who guarantee profits in trading. You are advised not to use funds if you are not prepared to incur losses. Before deciding to trade, ensure that you understand the risks involved and also consider your experience.